Putin mentions narrative that he should have started full-scale war against Ukraine sooner – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have said that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has said he should have started the full-scale war against Ukraine before February 2022 but did not say when exactly.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian leader Vladimir Putin reiterated his claim that he should have broken the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 by launching a full-scale invasion earlier than February 2022. 

Speaking during an interview with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin on 22 December, Putin stated that Russia should have commenced its invasion sooner but noted that it was impossible to specify an exact date for when this was supposed to happen.

Putin accused Ukraine and the West of "misleading" Russia and failing to implement the Minsk-II agreement, which he claimed allowed the West time to prepare Ukraine for future "military actions" against Russia. He argued that Russia should have "prepared for this" and "chosen the right moment" to launch its invasion, rather than "waiting for the moment when it was no longer possible to do nothing."  [The Minsk agreements are international agreements signed by Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE which sought to end the war in Donbas – ed.].

The analysts note that Putin neglected to acknowledge that Ukraine's military preparations were a defensive response to Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukrainian territory and the conflict in the east of Ukraine.

Putin made similar comments during his 19 December Direct Line televised press conference, where he claimed he would have opted to invade Ukraine earlier if given the chance to revisit his decision. 

He also repeated accusations that Ukraine failed to comply with the Minsk-2 agreement and that Russia "spontaneously" invaded Ukraine in 2022. 

The Minsk-II agreement, notably skewed in Russia's favour, imposed no obligations on Moscow, which participated as an alleged neutral mediator. 

The ceasefire established under the agreement was routinely violated by Russian proxies with Moscow’s support.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 22 December:

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin repeated his latest claim that he should have violated the ceasefire agreements imposed on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 by launching a full-scale invasion earlier than February 2022.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Oryol Oblast with drones on the night of 21-22 December.
• Russian forces recently executed more Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the battlefield.
• Ukrainian forces have recently regained lost positions in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, while Russian forces have advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, as well as in Kursk Oblast.
• North Korea may have transferred at least four additional ballistic missiles to Russia.

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