Kremlin's information manipulations mitigate Russian population's war fatigue – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) who have analysed surveys in Russia have said that the operation by the Ukrainian defence Forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast has caused concern among Russians. However, the Kremlin's information operations are mitigating domestic war fatigue and allowing the Russian authorities to choose a strategy for a protracted war of attrition against Ukraine.

Source: ISW

Details: The report noted that recent Russian domestic polls indicate that Ukraine's operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast has not yet reduced support for the war in Ukraine in the short term and that support for the war in Russia has remained high since 2022.

The Russian sociological organisation Levada Center released the results of its monthly poll on 30 August and found that about 78% of respondents support Russian military operations in Ukraine, up from 75% in July 2024 and 77% in June 2024.

Experts said that the Levada Center poll indicates that the lowest level of Russian support for the war against Ukraine was in February 2022, when 68% of respondents supported the war. Moreover, it was pointed out that support for the war among respondents has not fallen below 70% since March 2022.

In August 2024, the Levada Center also asked respondents about the Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast and found that 91% of respondents were concerned about Ukrainian military operations on Russian territory.

In addition, the Levada Center reported that 57% of respondents do not expect a second wave of mobilisation and 60% do not see the need for one in the coming months – both figures are down from 65% and 69%, respectively.

Quote: "Levada Center's polling data indicates that the Kremlin's refusal to fully transition Russian society at large to a wartime footing and the Kremlin’s ongoing domestic information operations aimed at normalising the war to Russian society have mitigated against domestic war weariness thus far and that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has not changed this mindset. 

The fact that Russian society in general appears to not be experiencing war fatigue likely grants the Kremlin flexibility in how it strategises to wage a protracted war of attrition against Ukraine."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 1 September:  

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted the largest series of drone strikes against targets within Russia on the night of 31 August-1 September.
• Ukrainian forces continued to conduct assaults in Kursk Oblast on 1 September, but there were no confirmed Ukrainian advances.
• Recent Russian domestic polls suggest that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has not yet degraded Russian domestic support of the war in Ukraine in the short-term following the Kursk incursion and that Russian support for the war has remained high since 2022.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed at an 31 August press conference that "Armenia has frozen its participation in the [Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization] CSTO at all levels," after Armenia has effectively abstained from participating in the CSTO for nearly a year.
• Russian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City, southeast of Kupiansk, southeast of Pokrovsk, and southwest of the city of Donetsk.

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