UK Defence Ministry comments on consequences of Ukrainian strikes on Crimea and Russian airbases

The UK Defence Ministry has analysed the latest success of Ukrainian strikes on military targets in Crimea and airbases on the territory of the Russian Federation. 

Source: UK Defence Ministry review dated 20 June on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda

During June 2024, the Russian Air Force maintained pressure on the line of contact in Ukraine with tactical aircraft while kamikaze drones continued to strike infrastructure and military targets far beyond the line of contact. 

However, between 12 and 18 June, Russian long-range aircraft switched their cruise missile strikes to Ukrainian air bases, which was almost certainly Russia's response to  the success of the Ukrainian airstrikes, and it also probably underscores Russia's concerns about the future use of F-16 aircraft by Ukraine's Air Force.

A series of coordinated Ukrainian attacks on targets in Crimea led to the destruction of critical elements of Russian S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. 

While Russia can likely quickly replace the systems, further depletion is likely to force Russia to attract equipment from other regions, as it has done before, if the Kremlin wants to maintain the coverage density of its air defence network.

Alternatively, Russia may be forced to accept the decline in its capabilities, putting its forces in Crimea at increased risk.

Further successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian airbases from which attack operations are conducted, such as Mozdok, Akhtubinsk and most recently Morozovsk, are very likely to force Russia to continue its policy of dispersing aircraft further away from the line of contact. 

This will almost certainly lead to increased fatigue of aircraft and crews as the departure time increases. It is possible that the loss of a Su-34 fighter-bomber in North Ossetia, Russia's souty, on 12 June was connected with this.

Background:

• In one of their previous reviews, UK Defence intelligence analysed Ukraine's strike on the Russian ferry crossing in Kerch.

• Additionally, UK Defence intelligence reported that Russia is actively using the formed "volunteer corps" for offensive actions in the war against Ukraine.

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