Russians advance fast because of air defence shortage at front – ISW

Due to the depletion of Ukraine’s air defences at the front, Russian aircraft are supporting consistent and rapid Russian successes, including near the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts believe that Ukraine's air defences remain limited and degraded, allowing Russian aircraft to operate freely and without threat in certain critical areas of the front line. 

The ability of Russian aircraft to operate at depths of over 100 kilometres in Ukrainian airspace close to the front line without significant losses is an indication that Ukrainian air defences in this area are currently not sufficient to constrain or deter Russian aircraft from operating on the front line. 

Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range attacks on Russian strategic aircraft engaged in combat could temporarily limit Russian air operations, as it has done with tactical aircraft in the past. 

However, this Ukrainian strike capability cannot compensate for the critical shortage of air defence assets across the country. The Ukrainian forces have to determine how to allocate their limited air defence assets. This comes at a significant cost.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 19 April:  

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signalled Russia’s intent to seize Kharkiv City in a future significant Russian offensive operation, the first senior Kremlin official to outright identify the city as a possible Russian operational objective following recent Ukrainian warnings that Russian forces may attempt to seize the city starting in summer 2024.
• Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian aircraft as it conducted missile strikes against Ukraine for the first time on the night of 18-19 April, demonstrating a capability that may constrain how Russia conducts its strike campaign against Ukraine.
• Ukrainian air defence capabilities remain limited and degraded, however, allowing Russian aircraft to operate freely without threat on certain critical areas of the front.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine requires Western provisions of artillery ammunition, air defence materiel, long-range artillery and missile systems, and fighter aircraft as Ukrainian constraints continue due to delays in US military assistance.
• Pro-Russian Moldovan actors continue to set conditions to justify possible future Russian aggression in Moldova as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared Moldova to Ukraine and Armenia.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues to expand the newly reformed Leningrad Military District (LMD) in preparation for an anticipated future large-scale conventional conflict with NATO.
• Russian officials continue to forcibly deport and Russify Ukrainian children as Ukrainian authorities work to return deported children to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

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