Ukraine strikes Russia with weapons of its own production – ISW

Ukraine's strikes on Russian military infrastructure, oil refining and exports, as well as increased pressure on Russia's air defence system, have demonstrated that Ukraine can counter Russia with a small number of weapons, mostly domestically produced.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW analysts believe that Ukrainian strikes on targets in Russia are part of a Ukrainian campaign to degrade industries that support Russian military efforts and military capabilities deployed deep in the Russian territory.

Kyrylo Budanov, the Chief of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (DIU), said on 17 April that Ukraine plans to counter future Russian offensives by continuing to strike Russian military targets on the aggressor country's territory.

In an interview with the Washington Post, Budanov said that the DIU plans to strike a Russian defence industrial base and critical military facilities such as airfields and command and control centres in response to a projected Russian offensive in the summer of 2024. Budanov stated that the strikes are intended to show that Russian leader Vladimir Putin cannot "protect the [Russian] population from war".

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 18 April:

• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that the Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024.
• Budanov also stated on 17 April that Ukraine plans to counter future Russian offensive operations by continuing strikes against Russian military targets within Russia.
• Russian forces reportedly continue to intensify crypto-mobilisation efforts ahead of the expected Russian summer 2024 offensive operation but will likely struggle to establish effective operational- and strategic-level reserves rapidly.
• Ukrainian officials clarified that the Ukrainian strike on a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea, overnight on 16 to 17 April caused significant damage to Russian air defence equipment.
• Russian milbloggers seized on a violent crime committed by a migrant in Moscow on 18 April to reiterate calls for further restrictions in Russian migration policies.
• German authorities detained two individuals suspected of aiding Russia in its ongoing efforts to sabotage NATO member states’ military infrastructure and logistics.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Skhemy (Schemes) investigative project, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reported on 17 April that Russia’s defence industry is using US- and Japanese-made components in the navigation and communication systems of Russian Sukhoi fixed-wing aircraft.

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