Ukrainian troops conduct relatively controlled withdrawal from Avdiivka – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Ukrainian units are currently "conducting a relatively controlled withdrawal" from Avdiivka.

Source: ISW

Details: Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated on the night of 16-17 February that he had ordered Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka to withdraw to more advantageous defensive positions to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives of Ukrainian servicemen.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops are withdrawing in large numbers and that the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces is becoming increasingly disorderly and costly. However, ISW has not observed any visual evidence of the mass or chaotic withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. The continuous slight advance of Russian forces in Avdiivka and around it suggests that the Ukrainian troops are currently conducting a relatively controlled withdrawal from the town.

Russian sources also stated that their forces have advanced in the eastern outskirts of Avdiivka to the southwest, further south along Hrushevskoho Street and west of Avdiivka toward dirt roads used by Ukrainian forces to supply positions in Avdiivka’s east and south.

Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russians are close to or have already cut off one of the dirt roads connecting Avdiivka with Lastochkyne (west of Avdiivka). 

Russian sources have asserted that the Russians are close to encircling the remaining Ukrainian forces in the central, eastern and southern parts of Avdiivka, with one Russian blogger claiming that slightly over a kilometre separates Russian positions ontAvdiivka’s western outskirts from Russian positions in Avdiivka’s south.

As of now, ISW assesses that approximately three and a half kilometres separate Russian positions in these two areas, based on available visual evidence. 

ISW suggested that Ukrainian forces may need to conduct counterattacks to facilitate an organised withdrawal from Avdiivka, adding that Russian efforts aimed at complicating or preventing the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops may become quite exhausting.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 February:

• Germany and France both signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine on 16 February.
• NATO officials are increasingly warning that Russia poses a significant threat to NATO’s security.
• Independent Russian survey data suggests that most Russians are largely apathetic towards Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly Russians who have not personally lost family members in Ukraine and are thus able to avoid thinking about the war entirely.
• The Russian reaction to the reported death of imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny on 16 February was relatively muted.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, northwest of Bakhmut, and near Avdiivka.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to posture himself as an involved and effective wartime leader.
• Russian-controlled courts in occupied Ukraine continue to pass harsh sentences on Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).

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