Kremlin sets conditions to begin hybrid operation in Moldova in near future – ISW

The Kremlin has been creating information conditions for a Russian hybrid operation in Moldova to become possible in the near future.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Meanwhile, the ISW noted that the terms of a possible Russian hybrid operation in Moldova have not yet been determined. 

The ISW continues to assess that Kremlin officials and mouthpieces are trying to create information conditions to justify possible Russian efforts to destabilise Moldova and prevent its integration into the West. The fact that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has extended these narratives and added additional accusations suggests that the Kremlin is organising wider efforts in the information space.

Other official figures from the Russian Foreign Ministry, including its spokesperson Maria Zakharova, previously claimed that the Moldovan government was trying to "strangle" Transnistria economically, preventing a diplomatic solution to the Transnistria conflict and facing widespread internal dissatisfaction with the Moldovan government policies.

A Russian milblogger that has certain connections with the Kremlin has recently taken up the Transnistria issue to consistently promote Kremlin narratives and assert that Moldova is "arming itself" to "forcefully reintegrate" Transnistria into Moldova. The milblogger said Russia must prepare for this.

Recently, the Moldovan government accused Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria of conducting exercises and using weapons in the Moldovan security zone, violating the protocols of the OSCE Joint Control Commission (JCC).

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 February:

• Ukrainian forces successfully sank another Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) landing ship in the Black Sea off the southern coast of occupied Crimea on the night of 13 to 14 February.
• Ukraine reportedly continues efforts to offset Russian advantages in manpower and material by using more advanced systems and equipment, although continued delays in Western security assistance will undermine these efforts.
• Russia is similarly pursuing battlefield advantages through technological innovation despite its focus on generating manpower and materiel in greater mass than Ukraine.
• Russian authorities may be generating enough new forces to sustain losses generated by the current tempo of their offensive operations in Ukraine through 2025.
• The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) stated that the Russian military’s ongoing restructuring and expansion effort aims to intensify Russian military posturing against Finland and the wider NATO alliance.
• The Kremlin is conducting information operations against Moldova very similar to those that the Kremlin used before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, likely to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg stated on 14 February that NATO does not see any immediate threat of military attacks on a NATO member but noted that there is a "constant risk" of hybrid attacks.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied recent Western reports that Russia recently proposed freezing the conflict in Ukraine.
• Russia reportedly is developing a space-based anti-satellite weapon.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Marinka, and Krynky amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on 14 February.
• Russia continues efforts to expand its defence industrial base (DIB).
• Russian authorities continue efforts to militarise and culturally indoctrinate youth and students in occupied Ukraine into Russian identity and ideology.

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