Special operations of Ukrainian troops on left bank of Kherson Oblast are larger than before – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Ukrainian actions on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast appear to be larger than the tactical raids that took place earlier. And geolocation footage indicates that Ukraine’s forces are maintaining their presence along the Dnipro shoreline and near the Antonivka railway bridge, despite Russian counterattacks.

Source: the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian sources also discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on 19 October. A prominent Russian miblogger, who initiated the Russian discussion of Ukrainian assaults on the eastern bank on 18 October, claimed on 19 October that two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups of a Ukrainian marine brigade crossed the Dnipro River, defeated Russian troops in the area, and gained a foothold in the village of Krynky (30 km east of Kherson and approximately 2 km inland from the Dnipro River shoreline).

He also claimed that Russian infantry counterattacked and pushed Ukrainian forces back to the outskirts of the village, but noted that Ukrainian forces still controlled some houses in Krynky and were waiting for reinforcements in the area. 

Another Russian miblogger stated that Ukrainian forces used more manpower in the Krynky attack than in previous attacks. 

Several Russian sources, including the occupying head of Kherson Oblast, Vladimir Saldo, claimed that Russians had succeeded in pushing Ukrainian forces back from the Poima-Pishchanivka-Pidstepne area (15 km east of Kherson) to the Dnipro River bank and to positions near the Antonivka railway bridge, where they claimed Ukrainian forces were attempting to rest and regroup under sustained Russian air and artillery strikes.

The Ukrainian General Staff also acknowledged Ukrainian operations on the east bank and reported on 19 October that Russian aircraft had struck Pishchanivka, implying that Ukrainian forces were operating in the town.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 19 October:

• Russian sources continued to discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 19, and Ukrainian forces likely maintain a limited presence in some east bank areas near the Dnipro River shoreline and the Antonivsky railway bridge.
• Satellite imagery published on October 18 suggests that the Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the Luhansk City airfield likely damaged several helicopters on October 17.
• Ukrainian officials reported on October 19 that Ukrainian forces have downed five Russian fixed wing aircraft within the past 10 days in Donetsk Oblast amid high Russian ground vehicle losses near Avdiivka.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued counteroffensive operations on October 19.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Pyongyang, North Korea on October 19, likely part of an ongoing Russian effort to procure additional munitions from North Korea.
• A Russian milblogger observed that Ukrainian forces are successfully and asymmetrically attriting Russian reserves in ongoing offensive operations.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly continues efforts to push remnants of the Wagner Group out of Syria.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, around Avdiivka, south of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• A Russian federal subject is attempting to compensate for labour shortages in its defense sector by spearheading an initiative to allow some minors to work in hazardous conditions.

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