US assumes Putin's "red lines" more flexible than previously thought – Politico

After the failed rebellion in Russia, US officials suspect that Vladimir Putin's so-called "red lines" are more flexible than previously thought, including these on the issue of supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Source: Politico

Quote: "U.S. officials suspect that one motivation for Putin making the deal was to avoid widespread violence on Russian soil. 

That has led some to wonder if they could push the envelope further in supplying Ukraine with more lethal, longer-range weapons — including F-16s. 

Their thought: Putin’s red line might be softer than anticipated, and he might choose not to escalate for fear of widening the conflict, according to two people familiar with the deliberations. But they cautioned that no decision has been made".

Details: Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, answering a question on Tuesday whether chaos in the Russian army could encourage a counteroffensive by Ukraine, said: "I think there’s some opportunity there."

However, he added that U.S. officials are still waiting to see how events unfold.

According to the publication, in the short term, it is evident that the NATO summit, which will be held in Lithuania in two weeks, will acquire a new relevance. Blinken hinted at a "robust package for Ukraine" that will be presented by NATO leaders in Vilnius. But it is also possible that the Alliance's plans for a possible entry of Ukraine may change, given Russia's military weakness and the genuine prospect of civil war on its borders.

Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president believes that "It’s still a high bar [for Ukraine’s potential NATO membership] because all 31 [NATO] countries have to say yes".

Quote: "But this will help. The West now has less reason to worry about Putin’s supposed red lines, and all the more reason to worry about how to prepare for a destabilised, unpredictable situation in Russia."

More details: Politico writes that some analysts assume Putin's "restraint" during the deal with Prigozhin may be a sign of his rationality, others say that a weakened dictator may become even crazier.

The fragility of the Putin regime is also forcing some U.S. officials to take a closer look at the possibility of a post-Putin Russia and a nuclear stockpile that could become an even more destabilising factor for the world order.

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