Russia launches over 2,000 drones at Ukraine in November – UK Defence Intelligence

UK Defence Intelligence has analysed Russia's use of drones against Ukrainian regions throughout November.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence update dated 23 December on X (Twitter), as reported by European Pravda

Details: Russia launched approximately 2,300 one-way attack unmanned aerial systems of various types across Ukraine in November 2024, exceeding the total from the previous month.

The UK Defence Intelligence report emphasised that the monthly number of drones launched steadily increased throughout 2024, with a notable rise–over 200 additional launches–beginning in July. However, the growth rate slowed from October to November. Early data for December indicates around 850 launches.

The report indicates that weather conditions likely impacted operations in December, as evidenced by periods of low activity followed by nights with significantly larger waves of launches.

UK intelligence assesses that, barring disruptions to launch sites or production facilities, Russia is likely capable of maintaining a monthly launch rate of at least 1,500 drones.

Russian air defence systems provide target coverage across Ukraine, enabling continued pressure while replenishing stocks of long-range aviation missiles, the report noted.

Russian attack UAVs provide target coverage across Ukraine, enabling continued pressure while replenishing stocks of long-range aviation missiles, the report noted.

Between September and November 2024, up to 50-60% of all drone launches were likely "decoy launches", the report suggests. 

These systems, smaller and cheaper than Shahed-class drones, are designed to complicate Ukrainian defences by saturating or confusing radar picture, forcing air defence units to engage and potentially leading to fatigue over time.

Despite their primary role as decoys, some of these systems likely carry small explosive payloads, making them no less dangerous if they reach their targets, the analysts noted.

Background:

• In October, UK intelligence reported that Russia had launched approximately 2,000 drones at Ukrainian regions that month–an increase of about 700 compared to September.
• On 28 November, UK intelligence noted that Russia experienced a record single-day loss of 2,030 personnel, marking the first time daily losses exceeded 2,000.

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