Russia suffers huge losses in Ukraine but continues to mobilise hundreds daily – NYT

Russia continues to endure heavy losses in its war of aggression against Ukraine, with October recording the highest number of casualties since the full-scale invasion began. However, the Russian army is far from exhausted. In the first half of 2024, Russia managed to mobilise approximately 900 recruits per day.

Source: The New York Times

Quote from the NYT: "Russia’s military made its largest territorial gains in more than two years in October, as it pressed farther into Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region – but at a heavy cost.

British and Ukrainian military officials, as well as BBC researchers, claim that Russia suffered its highest rate of dead and injured soldiers during that month. The arrival of thousands of North Korean troops in Russia is also raising questions about whether the Kremlin has enough soldiers to make up for its losses."

Details: The publication highlights that both Russia and Ukraine have been deliberately concealing their casualty figures. However, researchers and journalists have devised innovative methods to estimate the number of Russian soldiers either killed in the war or left so severely wounded that they can no longer fight.  

These methods include analysing obituaries, cemetery records, disability payouts, and notarial databases.  

Experts suggest that Russia has suffered more military losses in this war than any industrialised nation in a conflict since World War II.  

Journalists from the Russian outlet Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service are meticulously tracking Russian military deaths by gathering and cross-referencing publicly available information, such as news reports, obituaries, and photographs of gravestones from cemeteries.

Quote: "This work has produced the most comprehensive database of confirmed Russian combat deaths: 78,000 soldiers by November, not including the Ukrainian separatists and foreigners fighting for Russia. (A similar, but less transparent, account of Ukraine’s losses found 65,000 dead soldiers by mid-November)."

At the same time, the publication points out that Mediazona's tally is incomplete, as some soldiers leave no trace after their deaths. The journalists believe they have documented about half of all Russian military casualties.

A separate statistical analysis of war losses was conducted by Russian news outlets Meduza, Mediazona, and the BBC. Their main tool was the Russian state notarial database, which includes all inheritance cases filed by the families of fallen soldiers. This analysis helped the journalists estimate the total number of Russian military deaths to be nearly 150,000 by the end of October.

Additionally, the BBC, Mediazona, and Meduza journalists worked to calculate the number of severe injuries suffered by Russian soldiers on the battlefield. They consulted military experts, analysed leaked personnel lists, and reviewed veteran compensation statistics. Their conclusion was that for every Russian soldier killed, there are approximately two who are severely wounded.

Summing up the estimated number of deaths and severe injuries, Meduza calculated that by the end of October, Russian forces had sustained a total of 405,000 irrecoverable losses (killed and severely wounded soldiers who will never be able to fight again). Using a similar method, Olga Ivshina of the BBC estimated 484,000 irrecoverable losses for the same period.

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), along with that of several NATO countries, provides its own estimates of Russian casualties, all of which claim that by October, Russia had lost between 600,000 and 700,000 soldiers, both killed and wounded.

The publication points out that these agencies do not disclose their methods, but officials and military analysts familiar with the calculations say intelligence typically publishes the "top range" of its internal estimates, which includes soldiers with less severe injuries.

However, The New York Times reminds that despite these heavy losses, Russia still has recruits it can mobilise.

Quote: "To be sure, losses are just one side of the coin. In a war of attrition as in Ukraine, the supply of new troops is another crucial variable.

In June, Russia’s Defence Ministry counted 33 million men eligible for military service, according to a government database obtained by Meduza. This compares with 6 million potential soldiers who lived in Ukraine before Russia’s invasion in 2022."

According to an analysis of Russian budget data by Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, around 900 men were joining the Russian armed forces daily during the first half of this year.

The New York Times notes that rising bonuses, salaries, and compensation payments for those signing contracts with Russia's Ministry of Defence have made recruitment more appealing. The Kremlin is also looking for fighters beyond its borders, attracting volunteers from dozens of developing countries and even military personnel from its ally, North Korea.

"This rate of recruitment has allowed the Russian military not only to replenish losses, but also to create new units. This month, the Pentagon said the Kremlin had amassed a combined force of 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast of Russia."

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