Ukraine increases arms production, but needs significant Western assistance – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Ukraine is increasing the production of weapons, military equipment and drones, but still needs significant Western assistance in countering Russian aggression.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Ukraine is actively working to boost domestic production of key military equipment and maintain its drone superiority over Russia. 

On  1 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian companies have the capacity to produce four million drones annually, with 1.5 million already contracted for domestic production in 2024.

In contrast, Russian leader Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia aims to increase drone production tenfold by 2024 to 1.4 million drones, a figure lower than Ukraine's goal of two million.

Zelenskyy also revealed that Ukraine can manufacture 15 Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems per month; in addition, Ukraine recently conducted a successful flight test of a locally-produced ballistic missile. 

On 2 October, Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umierov emphasised that Ukraine will continue prioritising the production of drones and long-range missiles, including ballistic missiles.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated on the same day that Ukraine's draft budget for 2025 has allocated US$7 billion for military procurement, a 65% increase from 2024. 

He also noted that domestic weapons production had tripled in 2023 and then doubled again in the first eight months of 2024.

Quote: "ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian efforts to expand domestic military production will allow Ukraine to reduce its dependence on Western military assistance in the long-term, but that Ukraine still requires considerable Western assistance for the next several years in order to defend against Russian aggression and liberate strategically vital areas that Russian forces currently occupy."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 30 September:

• Ukraine continues efforts to expand domestic production of significant military equipment and maintain its drone advantage over Russia.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov condemned the Israel Defence Force's (IDF) ground operation in southern Lebanon during a meeting with the Lebanese ambassador to Russia on 1 October.
• Latvian forces enhanced air defence near the Russian border following a recent Russian drone crash in the country.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued assaults in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Siversk, and Vuhledar and east and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian defence enterprises are recruiting tens of thousands of new workers due to acute personnel shortages amid increased production of weapons due to the war in Ukraine.

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