Putin's vision of victory is Ukraine's exhaustion, but he will not succeed – ISW

Russian leader Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory in Ukraine is aimed at prolonging the war, and it claims that Russian troops can outlast Western support for Ukraine and break the Ukrainian resistance, winning a war of attrition.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts emphasised that medium- to long-term limitations on Russia's ability to generate forces and produce military equipment will hinder its capacity to sustain ongoing offensive operations aimed at prolonging the war and overwhelming Ukraine through attrition. 

Quote: "Putin and the Russian military command have committed the Russian military to a year-long offensive effort along the frontline in eastern and northeastern Ukraine that seeks to exhaust Ukrainian forces and prevent Ukraine from accumulating the necessary manpower and material to conduct counter offensive operations that contest Russia's theatre-wide initiative. 

Putin and the Russian military command likely view retaining the theatre-wide initiative as a strategic priority and have shown themselves to be tolerant of protracted offensive operations that result in gradual, creeping advances far short of their intended operational objectives."

Details: Putin’s strategy hinges on Russian forces maintaining continuous offensive efforts indefinitely, but these gruelling attacks will likely erode Russia’s manpower and resources to the point where they will need to slow the pace of operations in certain sectors. This would offer Ukrainian forces a chance to challenge and potentially take the initiative in those areas.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has observed a growing number of financial incentives offered by Russian authorities to encourage military contracts with the Ministry of Defence, indicating that Russia is struggling to recruit enough willing volunteers.

Currently, Russia is relying on refurbishing a limited stock of Soviet-era equipment to replace significant losses in Ukraine, but these stockpiles are being depleted at an accelerating rate.

Russia is also turning to partnerships with North Korea and Iran to acquire ammunition and military equipment, and engaging with China to obtain critical components for defence production. However, these international efforts will not fully meet Russia's material needs in Ukraine.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 October:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine's five-part Victory Plan aimed at winning the war by the end of 2025 to the Verkhovna Rada on 16 October, which includes a promise to contribute experienced Ukrainian troops to defending NATO's eastern flank following the resolution of the war in Ukraine.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory in Ukraine seeks to protract the war and posits that Russian forces can outlast Western support for Ukraine and collapse Ukrainian resistance by winning a war of attrition. Russia will likely face serious medium- and long-term constraints that will undermine this strategic effort, however.
• Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin notably questioned the Kremlin's articulated theory of victory and assessed that 2025 and possibly late 2024 will be "a serious test" for Russia because the Kremlin has yet to address medium- to long-term force-generation and defence-industrial-capacity constraints.
• Girkin also assessed that the Russian Summer–Fall 2024 offensive campaign did not accomplish its goals in the entire theatre and is unlikely to do so ahead of the muddy season, although Russian forces are continuing intense offensive operations in several operational directions in Ukraine.
• US President Joe Biden announced a new military assistance package for Ukraine worth $425 million following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 16 October.
• The South Korean Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated on 16 October that it is "closely" monitoring indications that North Korean troops are directly supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine amid reports that the Russian military is training North Korean soldiers.
• Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Kreminna, near Siversk, and near Toretsk.

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