North Korean troops may help Putin avoid further mobilisation – ISW

Ivashkiv Olena — Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 03:58

The Kremlin is likely using the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea to offset Russian force generation and ensure border security. This strengthens Russian leader Vladimir Putin's commitment to avoid mobilisation for as long as possible.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: On 15 October, Ukrainian media outlets Suspilne and Liga, citing anonymous military intelligence sources, reported that Russia's 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade is forming a 3,000-person battalion staffed by North Korean citizens, a number much larger than typical battalion size.

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that this "battalion" would likely be deployed in ongoing Russian defensive operations in Kursk Oblast. There have also been reports of up to 18 North Korean soldiers deserting their positions in Bryansk and Kursk oblasts before the unit was even engaged in combat.

While ISW cannot independently verify these reports, it is notable that Russian officials did not deny them on 15 October.

Meanwhile, Putin submitted the text of the Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, signed in June 2024, to the Russian State Duma for ratification on 14 October.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, commenting to Kremlin-aligned Russian news agency TASS, emphasised that the agreement explicitly provides for "mutual defence and security cooperation".

It appears the Kremlin is using this "mutual defence" clause to justify the deployment of North Korean soldiers to the combat zone in response to Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast.

ISW has also noted recent reports suggesting a small number of North Korean personnel was operating near the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 15 October:

The Kremlin is likely leveraging the recent June 2024 Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in part to offset Russian force generation and border security requirements – further cementing Russian leader Vladimir Putin's commitment to avoiding mobilisation for as long as possible.
The Kremlin has elected to address the recent controversy regarding its reliance on conscripts to repel Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast by offering financial incentives to any personnel involved in defending the state border.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin to stay in his position despite reaching retirement age (again) demonstrating Putin's continued preference for keeping curated loyalists from his inner circle in positions of power.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupiansk, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
A former Russian Storm-Z instructor and milblogger heavily criticised Russian forces' reliance on the partially-encrypted communications platform Discord following Russia's recent ban of the platform.

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