Russia strikes Ukrainian ports to undermine international support for Ukraine – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have reported that the Russians are striking Ukrainian ports to undermine international support for Ukraine and push Ukraine towards early talks.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian forces struck civilian vessels docked at Ukrainian ports for the fourth time since 5 October, part of an apparent Russian strike campaign targeting port areas to undermine Ukraine's grain corridor, spoil international support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations."

Details: Officials from Odesa Oblast reported that Russian forces launched a ballistic missile strike on the port of Odesa on 14 October, hitting civilian vessels the Belize-flagged NS Moon and the Palau-flagged Optima (a dry cargo vessel). The attack also damaged port infrastructure and a grain storage facility. 

The officials reported the Optima had already sustained damage from Russian strikes on 7 October. Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces had most recently attacked civilian vessels docked in the port of Odesa on the night of 5-6 October, as well as on 7 and 9 October.

Russian ultranationalist milbloggers reacted to the 9 October strike by promoting Kremlin narratives aimed at undermining confidence in the grain corridor and attempting to justify the attack. 

These milbloggers openly called for more Russian strikes against Ukrainian grain infrastructure, civilian vessels in Ukrainian ports and other targets to further diminish Ukraine's economic capacity.

The ISW recently assessed that Russian strikes on civilian vessels and grain corridor infrastructure are almost certainly meant to erode Western confidence in Ukraine's ability to secure and protect the corridor, shape ongoing Western discussions about long-term support for Ukraine and hamper Ukraine's ability to maintain its economy during the war.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 October:

• Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in the People's Republic of China (PRC) for an official visit on 14 October, highlighting continued Russia-PRC defence cooperation against the backdrop of bilateral naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean.
• Russian forces struck civilian vessels docked at Ukrainian ports for the fourth time since 5 October, part of an apparent Russian strike campaign targeting port areas to undermine Ukraine's grain corridor, spoil international support for Ukraine and push Ukraine into premature negotiations.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces recaptured positions in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions in central Toretsk.
• Russian forces recently conducted a reduced battalion-sized mechanised assault on the Kurakhove front and recently made confirmed advances northeast of Vuhledar.
• Russian opposition media outlet Verstka reported on 11 October that sources within the Russian President’s Administration stated that the Kremlin's "Time of Heroes" programme, which places veterans of the war in Ukraine into government positions after returning to Russia, is meant to increase the popularity of contract military service and boost recruitment.
• Russian occupation officials continue to pathologise Ukrainian identity in an effort to indoctrinate children in occupied [parts of] Ukraine.

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