Russians want to win war by 2026 – Ukrainian Defence Intelligence chief

Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, has said that Russia wants to win the war against Ukraine by the end of 2025 or early 2026, because it will face serious economic problems from summer 2025 onwards and will need to mobilise more troops.

Source: Kyrylo Budanov at the 20th annual Yalta European Strategy (YES) meeting in Kyiv, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine

Quote from Budanov: "2025, late 2025 and early 2026, is a crucial time for them [the Russians – ed.]. So they want to end all this [the war] by then. Because by their own calculations, unless they come out of this war considering themselves the victors, in the long term – within the next 30 years – the Russian Federation will lose the superpower status they aspire to."

Details: According to Budanov, Russia predicts that "all their problems will start in the summer of 2025", as both financial and economic factors and socio-political factors will come together then.

Quote: "They are forecasting that the negative impact on their economy will begin to be very noticeable around the summer of 2025."

Budanov also says that the issue of recruitment to the army is becoming increasingly acute in Russia. 

Quote from Budanov: "They will face a dilemma during this period [summer 2025 – ed.]: either to announce mobilisation or to somehow reduce the intensity of hostilities, which may ultimately be critical for them."

The intelligence chief added that the public mood in Russia has also been affected by Ukraine's efforts to move the fighting deep into Russian territory.

Referring to Russian documents, Budanov noted that if Russia doesnʼt win, by the end of 2025 there will only be two superpowers left in the world – the US and China – and there will be no place for Russia.

Quote from Budanov: "They are aware of this. This is a key period for them. So they will do everything possible to win, as they understand it. Otherwise, they will drop out of absolutely all global processes. All they can count on is regional leadership, and they are not happy with that."

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