Ukrainian troops retreat on Pokrovsk front to avoid encirclement – ISW

Russian advances toward the city of Pokrovsk have led to the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from positions southeast of Pokrovsk. Consequently, the Russian troops have failed to achieve their apparent objective of a tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces in this area.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Geolocated footage from 22 August shows that Russian forces recently captured Ptyche, southeast of Pokrovsk, and advanced further south, confirming earlier claims of control over the east bank of the Karlivske Reservoir.

Recent Russian advances south and southwest of the T-0511 road (Ocheretyne-Hrodivka) have evened out the Russian frontlines east and southeast of Pokrovsk, rather than setting the stage for a tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces.

As Russian forces moved toward the E-50 (Donetsk-Pokrovsk) road in recent weeks, they likely threatened Ukrainian forces with encirclement, leading to Ukrainian withdrawals. A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade on the Pokrovsk front admitted on 22 August that these Russian advances prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw to level the front and protect their personnel.

Some Ukrainian commanders on the Pokrovsk front also told Associated Press in an article published on 22 August that new Ukrainian recruits in the region have occasionally retreated from their positions. 

However, ISW has not seen widespread reports of disorganised Ukrainian retreats on the Pokrovsk front, and the lack of significant Russian tactical gains suggests that Ukrainian forces were able to withdraw in an orderly manner. 

Earlier discussions among Russian military bloggers about a potential tactical encirclement in the area have quieted down.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 22 August: 

• The Russian military command recently redeployed elements of at least one Russian airborne (VDV) regiment from western Zaporizhizha Oblast in response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, possibly in an effort to stabilise the lines and improve command and control (C2) over Russian conscripts.
• The Russian military command reportedly heavily committed elements initially intended for the Russian offensive effort in northern Kharkiv Oblast to the defence of Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin may be taking steps to address its border vulnerabilities amid the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and following a series of unsuccessful long-term efforts to improve Russian border security.
• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian efforts to stop these advances on 22 August.
• Recent Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction appear to have prompted Ukrainian withdrawals from limited positions southeast of Pokrovsk, and Russian forces have likely failed to achieve their apparent objective of tactically encircling Ukrainian forces in the area.
• The tempo of Russian aviation operations is reportedly decreasing throughout most of the theatre, although this decreased tempo may be temporary, and its cause is unclear.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of successful strikes against targets in Volgograd Oblast and Krasnodar Krai on 22 August.
• Russian forces recently advanced north of Siversk, within Chasiv Yar and southeast of Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Head Alexander Khinshtein stated on 21 August that the Russian Union of Journalists and Ministry of Digital Development submitted a bill to the Cabinet of Ministers proposing to grant veteran status to journalists who have worked in Ukraine, the "counter-terrorism operation" zone in Kursk Oblast, and other unspecified combat zones.

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