ISW analyses new Ukrainian advances in Russia's Kursk Oblast

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have analysed the "additional successes" of the Ukrainian defence forces in their advance in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Ukrainian forces continued attacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on 20 August and recently made additional advances."

Details: On 20 August, Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued their mechanised operations on the outskirts of Korenevo, prompting Russian forces to launch artillery and airstrikes in an attempt to halt the Ukrainian advance. Their reports suggest that Russian troops were able to retake certain positions they had previously lost, and also made gains in the fields south of Safonovka, which lies northeast of Korenevo, roughly 30 kilometres from the international border.

Geolocated video footage shared on 20 August shows that Ukrainian forces have made progress in the wooded regions north of Russkoye Porechnoye, situated northeast of Sudzha and 20 kilometres from the border. This development aligns with maps shared by Russian military bloggers, which display Ukrainian advances throughout the administrative areas of Russkoye Porechnoye.

On the same day, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, presented a map illustrating the situation in Kursk Oblast. The ISW plans to incorporate the frontiers shown on this map into its updated analysis of the furthest reported Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, in line with their established mapping approach.

During a televised session of the Ukrainian Congress of Local and Regional Authorities on 20 August, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi showcased a map that purportedly represents the current forward positions of Ukrainian forces within Kursk Oblast.

Quote: "Syrskyi's map indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced slightly beyond ISW's assessed forward line of troops, namely near Viktorovka (southwest of Koreveno); between Snagost and Koreveno; northeast of Koreveno in the areas north of Kremyanoye and northwest of Pogrebki; east of Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha); and southeast of Sudzha."

"ISW does not question Syrskyi's presentation of the location of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and presents them in alignment with Syrskyi's presentation. 

ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces do not control all the territory behind the forward line of troops, according to the doctrinal definition of ‘control’ that ISW uses to shape its control of terrain assessments."

More details: Ukrainian officials have provided further details on the objectives of the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast and updates on its progress. On 20 August, Syrskyi announced that Ukrainian forces had penetrated 28 to 35 kilometres into Kursk Oblast, asserting control over 93 settlements, which span an area of 1,263 square kilometres.

Syrskyi remarked that the Ukrainian advances are forcing Russian forces to redeploy elements from unspecified units at the Ukrainian front line to reinforce positions in Kursk Oblast. This redeployment could potentially slow down and affect the outcome of Russian offensive operations within Ukraine.

He also mentioned that Ukrainian forces are aiming to create a buffer zone within Russian territory to prevent artillery strikes on Sumy Oblast and to "outpace" the broader efforts of Russian forces.

In the meantime, the Russian military command has been adding layers of bureaucracy to its already struggling command and control system, further complicating its response to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.

Quote: "ISW continues to assess that complex and overlapping responsibilities and the seemingly ever-growing list of actors the Kremlin has tasked with responding to the Ukrainian incursion impede Russia's ability to establish effective joint command and control structures."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 20 August: 

• Ukrainian forces continued attacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on 20 August and recently made additional advances.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi displayed a map depicting the situation in Kursk Oblast on 20 August, and ISW will use the boundaries of this map to update its assessment of maximalist claimed limits of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, consistent with ISW's mapping methodology for the Ukrainian incursion thus far.
• Russian authorities have reportedly redeployed Russian units from the Chasiv Yar front to Kursk Oblast amid efforts to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast with Russian forces previously in the area and redeployments from lower priority sectors of the front line in Ukraine.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin visited the site of the 2004 Beslan school siege on 20 August, likely in an effort to link the Russian "counterterrorism" response to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast to a "successful" Russian counterterrorism operation in the early 2000s.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) continue to increase monetary incentives for signing Russian military contracts in order to bolster Russia's force generation efforts.

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