Estonian intelligence says probability of front collapse in Ukraine decreases

Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Chief of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, believes that Russia is trying to take advantage of the last window of opportunity to step up attacks before the arrival of Western military equipment and ammunition in Ukraine.

Source: Kiviselg at a briefing on 26 April, as reported by European Pravda, citing Estonian public broadcaster ERR

Details: The colonel noted that the main activity of Russian forces is still focused on putting pressure on the town of Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut, the Marinka front west of Donetsk, and attacks on settlements on the railway connecting Avdiivka and Pokrovsk.

"In the latest case, Russian forces also made a localised breakthrough of Ukrainian defences in the area of Ocheretyne. By maintaining the pace and speed of its attacks, Russia is trying to use the last window of opportunity before Western military assistance fully arrives in Ukraine and is engaged in operations," he said.

Meanwhile, Kiviselg added that Russia's advances on the battlefield remain localised, and the likelihood of a collapse of the Ukrainian defence and front is decreasing.

Separately, the colonel commented on Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians, which he described as intended to create a so-called no-man's land.

"However, thanks to successful air defence operations, Ukraine has been able to reduce the use of Russian long-range bombers for deep strikes over the past week, as well as to diminish the intensity of bombing," Kiviselg added.

He added that Ukraine has been carrying out systematic deep strikes, attacking a number of military facilities in occupied Crimea and oil facilities in Russia.

Background: Earlier, UK Defence Intelligence noted that Russia is capable of capturing settlements near Avdiivka despite significant losses.

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