Kremlin conducts information operation against Kharkiv to make Ukrainians flee the city – ISW

Russia has intensified its strikes and information operations against Ukrainians who are living in the city of Kharkiv. The Kremlin is bombarding Kharkiv to persuade Ukrainians to flee the city and to displace millions of people internally. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The Russians are exploiting Ukraine's limited air defence capabilities and elevated tension in Ukraine in anticipation of military assistance from the United States.

Kremlin propagandists are also using concerns about an impending Russian offensive against the city of Kharkiv to conduct a coordinated information operation and cause panic among Ukrainians. 

ISW estimated that the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv would be very low if Ukraine quickly received renewed US military assistance. 

Ukrainian officials have previously discussed the possibility that Russian forces could launch a ground offensive against Kharkiv later this summer. 

However, ISW analysts estimated that the Russians would not have the forces necessary to capture the city as long as the Ukrainian military is properly supplied.  

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 22 April: 

• The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine.
• Kremlin mouthpieces are seizing on concerns about a future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City to conduct a likely coordinated information operation in an effort to create outsized panic among Ukrainians. ISW assesses that the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine receives renewed US military aid rapidly.
• Russia is intensifying strike and information operations against Ukrainians in Kharkiv City to exploit ongoing constraints on Ukrainian air defences and heightened tensions in Ukraine in the likely relatively brief window before the anticipated arrival of US military assistance to frontline areas.
• Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a wide penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, but their ability to do so will likely be blunted by the arrival of US and other Western aid to the front line.
• The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on 22 April that Finland is taking concrete steps to protect itself against Russian hybrid operations weaponising Russian-manufactured migrant crises on the Russian-Finnish border.
• The Kremlin appears to be highlighting its relationship with Azerbaijan while downplaying deteriorating Russian-Armenia relations following Russia’s failure to prevent Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblasts border area.
• The Russian state "Sudoplatov" volunteer drone initiative is reportedly equipping Russian military personnel operating on the Bakhmut front with cheap and defective first-person view (FPV) drones.

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