Russians try to destabilise Ukraine's defence lines and prepare for new offensive – ISW

The Russians will continue their offensive to destabilise Ukrainian defensive lines, while preparing for a new offensive in the summer of 2024.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW analysts suggested that Russian forces were likely to continue their offensive to destabilise Ukrainian defensive lines in the spring of 2024 while preparing for a predicted new offensive this summer.

ISW noted that Western security assistance was likely to play a crucial role in Ukraine's ability to hold territory now and repel new Russian offensive efforts in the coming months.

Nevertheless, Russian forces are trying to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in Ukraine’s east to prevent Ukrainian forces from stabilising their defensive lines.

The Russians are particularly focused on pushing as far west as possible from the town of Avdiivka before Ukrainian forces can establish a line in the area that will be harder to break through.

Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated on 15 March that Russian forces had concentrated their efforts on the Avdiivka front and are conducting daily mechanised and infantry attacks in an attempt to break through the Ukrainian defences.

While Ukrainian forces have recently managed to slow the advance of Russian troops west of Avdiivka, widespread logistical shortages caused by the delay in Western security assistance are forcing Ukraine to focus limited resources on critical areas of the front line, increasing the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other less well-supplied areas and making the front line as a whole more vulnerable than it appears, despite the current relatively slow pace of Russian advance.

ISW experts said that Russian forces would continue to take advantage of the initiative on the battlefield to dynamically redeploy their offensive efforts this spring and summer, likely in the hope of exploiting possible Ukraine’s vulnerabilities.

Ukrainian and Western officials have increasingly warned of both a significant shortage of Ukrainian materiel and a new large-scale Russian offensive this summer.

ISW experts therefore emphasised that the Russians were intending to take advantage of any gains it would make in the coming weeks, as well as predictions that the Ukrainian Armed Forces might be even worse supplied this summer than they are now.

However, with Western assistance, Ukraine will be able to stabilise the front line and prepare to repel Russian offensives.

In addition, ISW stressed that a severe shortage of air defence systems and missiles was likely to sharply reduce Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian attacks both in the rear and on the front lines in the coming weeks if not addressed quickly.

In the meantime, Russian forces have recently made efforts to strain Ukrainian air defences both in rear areas and along the front line.

Quote: "A 60 percent reduction in Ukraine’s ability to target – let alone shoot down – Russian missiles will further exacerbate these allocation issues. ISW continues to assess that the US remains the only immediate source of necessary air defence systems like Patriots."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 15 March: 

• Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilise Ukrainian defensive lines in the spring of 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in the summer of 2024. The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months.
• Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilise the front line and prepare for repelling the reported Russian offensive effort this summer if materiel shortages abated.
• The threat of significant Russian gains in the coming months does not mean that there is no threat of Russian forces making such gains through offensive operations this spring.
• Pressing shortages in air defence systems and missiles will likely dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes both in rear and frontline areas in the coming weeks if not addressed rapidly.
• Russian forces have shown the capacity to adapt to fighting in Ukraine and will likely aim to scale lessons learned from the war in Ukraine to ongoing efforts to prepare the Russian military for a potential long-term confrontation with NATO.
• Senior European officials stressed that a Russian victory in Ukraine would result in Russia posing a strategic threat to NATO security.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev questioned the sovereignty of Latvia, a NATO member state, and threatened Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs following Medvedev’s 14 March call for the total elimination of Ukraine and Ukraine's absorption into Russia under Medvedev's "peace formula." 
• French President Emmanuel Macron stated on 15 March that he is not ruling out sending Western troops to Ukraine but that the current situation does not require it.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russia’s border region on 15 March.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast, and recent Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries reportedly caused a spike in Russian domestic oil prices.
• Several Russians made limited attempts to disrupt the first day of voting in the Russian presidential election on 15 March.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupiansk and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian Treatment of Prisoners of War Coordinating Headquarters Representative Petro Yatsenko stated that Russia has intensified its efforts to recruit military personnel from abroad.
• Ukrainian sources and Russian opposition media reported that occupation officials continue coercive efforts to artificially inflate voter turnout and perceptions of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in occupied Ukraine.

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