ISW: Russia fears new incursions by Russian volunteer units ahead of elections

Russia is using conscripts to defend its border with Ukraine and Russian milbloggers are predicting new incursions by Russian volunteer units ahead of the presidential elections.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts believe that this is likely due to Russia's reluctance to redeploy troops from the front line to other areas.

ISW has been following reports by Russian military bloggers who noted that the incursion took place a few days before Russia's presidential election on 17 March and warned that similar incursions could take place in the coming days.

Background:

• Andrii Yusov, spokesman for Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, said on 12 March that units from the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberian Battalion took part in clashes in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.
• Russian sources initially denied the reports of the incursion but later stated that Russian troops had repelled attacks by Russian pro-Ukrainian forces backed by tanks, armoured vehicles and drones near Kharkiv Oblast (Ukraine) and Belgorod Oblast (Russia).
• Video footage released on 12 March showed Russian pro-Ukrainian forces operating near Nekhoteyivka and Spodarushino in Belgorod Oblast and in Tyotkino in Kursk Oblast.
• Their units reportedly captured Tyotkino, although Russian sources claim that Russian conscripts repelled all attacks.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 12 March:

• The All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion conducted a limited cross-border incursion into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the morning of 12 March.
• The New York Times (NYT) reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces have differential advantages and disadvantages in their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
• US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin "probably believes" that Russian forces have blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake significant territory and that US and Western support to Ukraine is "finite."
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced an emergency military aid package valued at $300 million for Ukraine on 12 March.
• Lithuanian and French authorities are expected to meet in Paris in the coming days to discuss accelerating support for Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to assert its right, contrary to international law, to enforce Russian federal law on officials of NATO members and former Soviet states for actions taken within the territory of their own countries where Russian courts have no jurisdiction, effectively denying the sovereignty of those states.
• The Kremlin recently implemented a series of personnel changes in the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD), Rosgvardia, and the Russian military command.
• Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia would leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if the CSTO fails to meet certain Armenian expectations, as Armenia continues to distance itself from Russian security relations.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on 12 March.
• The Kremlin is reportedly considering raising taxes, likely as part of efforts to increase federal budget revenues to fund its war in Ukraine.
• Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko continues to pursue industrial projects in occupied Ukraine.

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