UK Defence Intelligence explains why neither Ukrainians nor Russians can advance

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces can break through the contact line in Ukraine due to the solid air defences of both sides and the long contact line that must be held.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 3 November, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The intelligence review indicates that the operations of recent weeks have become a continuation of a trend revealed at the beginning of the war: other factors being equal, the balance of land combat generally favours the defending force.

The Ukrainian offensive remains relatively static between two main lines of well-prepared Russian defensive positions in Ukraine’s south, the review reads. A large-scale Russian offensive ran into a powerful Ukrainian defence near Avdiivka.

The main factor in this phenomenon, most likely, was the relative weakening of tactical aircraft, the review says. Both sides maintain reliable anti-aircraft defences, which do not allow combat aircraft to provide effective air support for assault operations.

In addition, the geographical scope of the conflict complicates the conduct of offensive operations. It is difficult for both sides to muster idle strike forces capable of a breakthrough, as most mobilised troops are needed to maintain the 1,200 km-long contact line.

Background: 

• Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, believes that the war with Russia is moving to a new stage: "positional" warfare with static and exhausting battles. To win it, Ukraine needs high technologies.

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