Russia mirrors "migration crisis" scenario between Poland and Belarus on Finnish border – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Russia is employing hybrid warfare tactics on the Finnish border, repeating the scenario of the "migration crisis" on the Polish border with Belarus and seeking to destabilise NATO.

Source: ISW

Details: The report stated that Russia is likely using well-known hybrid warfare tactics to artificially generate a migration crisis on the Finnish border.

Finnish authorities shut down four border crossing points on Finland's southeastern border with Russia on 18 November after the Finnish Border Guard reported that about 300 asylum seekers, mostly from Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and Syria, had arrived at the Finnish border from Russia since September 2023.

The Finnish newspaper Iltalehti reported on 20 November that the Finnish authorities were considering closing the entire border with Russia on the night of 21-22 November.

"It is unlikely that these migrants would continue to remain at the Finnish border in sub-zero temperatures of their own volition after Finnish border authorities denied their entrance into Finland, suggesting that Russia is likely involved in the situation in some way," the ISW stated.

Analysts note that the Kremlin has rejected Finland's accusations that Russia is involved in creating an artificial migrant influx.

"Russia’s apparent hybrid warfare tactic on the Russian-Finnish border is similar to Russia’s and Belarus’ creation of a migrant crisis on the Polish border in 2021 and is likely similarly aimed at destabilising NATO," the ISW stressed.

The ISW noted that they had previously concluded that the Kremlin had allowed or possibly directly controlled Belarus' artificial creation of a migration crisis on the border with Poland in 2021.

"The Kremlin exploited the manufactured crisis in 2021 to falsely accuse NATO of aggression against Belarus," the military analysts noted.

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