Russians capture 4.5 sq. km around Avdiivka – ISW

The Russian forces have captured 4.52 sq. km of territory on different axes around the city of Avdiivka during the last three days. The Russians are 3.32 km away from the road that is the Ukrainian ground line of communication.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: According to ISW estimates, as of 12 October, the Russian forces have not made a major breakthrough near Avdiivka and are unlikely to cut off the Ukrainian forces in the settlement right away.

Geolocation data shows that Russian forces have likely lost at least a battalion tactical group’s [50 units – ed.] worth of armoured vehicles in offensive operations around Avdiivka.

A reliable X (Twitter) user observed on 12 October that since 10 October, Ukrainian forces had destroyed 33 armoured vehicles and 15 tanks belonging to the Russians near Avdiivka.

A Ukrainian reserve officer stated that according to conservative estimates, at least 36 Russian armoured vehicles had been destroyed by the Ukrainian forces, including tanks, armoured personnel carriers and other vehicles. 

A military blogger also claimed that both forces were suffering "significant losses" in the operations around Avdiivka.

Video footage posted on 11 October supposedly shows a Russian armoured vehicle in a convoy near Avdiivka falling into a pool of water, while geolocation footage posted on 11 and 12  October shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian convoys near Avdiivka.

This footage would suggest that the Russian armoured forces appear not be applying any lessons learned from previous offensive operations near Vuhledar in February 2023 or around Kyiv in March 2022, when Ukrainian forces wiped out a disorderly Russian armoured convoy.

The defending Ukrainian forces are inflicting fairly significant losses on the Russians and disrupting their logistics near Avdiivka, which is likely to be slowing the pace of the Russian advance. A Russian military blogger maintained that the pace of the Russian advance had slowed and that Russian forces were now concentrating on "quality" attacks after suffering heavy losses in equipment.

Geolocation footage posted on 12 October has shown Ukrainian forces destroying a bridge northeast of Avdiivka, between Yasynuvata and Horlivka. A Russian military blogger claimed destruction of the bridge would have a negative impact on Russian logistics around Avdiivka and that Russian forces would likely find it difficult to attempt to repair the bridge because it is so close to the frontline.

Russian sources claimed that their forces are trying to kettle the Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka but quickly acknowledged that progress to date is slow.

Denis Pushilin, the "head" of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), claimed that it is too early to talk about a "full-scale [Ukrainian] exodus from the city" despite some Russian progress in the area.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces had gained additional territory on a waste heap on the northern flank of Avdiivka near the Avdiivka Coke Plant, that they had seized a section of railway south of Avdiivka, and had and advanced near the city, but ISW is unable to confirm these claims.

Russian sources have also claimed that Russian forces had destroyed the railway station in Ocheretyne (13 km northwest of Avdiivka), which they claimed served as a hub for Ukrainian logistics to Avdiivka.

ISW says the Russian information space is likely to exaggerate the extent of Russian success on the Avdiivka front and will continue to do so despite military setbacks or slow progress.

ISW is also revising its assessment that Russian attacks around Avdiivka are a localised effort aimed solely at pinning down Ukrainian forces, but it is not ready to assess the exact objectives and likely outcome of Russian efforts in that area at this time.

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