Ukrainian troops advance in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have analysed data concerning recent advances of Ukrainian defenders in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Source: ISW

Details: The analysts note that Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have claimed they have made advances south of Bakhmut on 9 September.

Geolocation data for 9 September shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced north-west of Novomaiorske (18 km south-east of Velyka Novosilka) along the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, where, Russian sources report, fighting has intensified in recent days.

Ukrainian forces also advanced to the northeast and east of Novoprokopivka (13 km south of Orikhiv) and west of Verbove (20 km southeast of Orikhiv), in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Ukraine's General Staff reported that the Defence Forces had made certain gains to the south of Robotyne (10 km south of Orikhiv).

A Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger said Ukrainian forces had forced the Russians to withdraw from Andriivka (9 km southwest of Bakhmut), and another blogger said that Andriivka is now a controversial "grey zone".

At the same time, Ukrainian officials said that Ukrainian troops had also witnessed some success  south of Klishchiivka.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 9 September:

• Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed advances south of Bakhmut on 9 September.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Vadym Skibitskyi reemphasized Ukraine’s right to target critical Russian strategic and military objects in rear areas.
• Russia’s war in Ukraine is increasingly constraining Russian local and regional politics, with even the minimal pre-war competition suppressed and regional governments increasingly focused on their ability to generate resources for the war.
• The Kremlin continues to refuse to rejoin the Black Sea Grain Initiative in an attempt to extract maximum concessions from the West and may believe that apparent support or acceptance for its demands from some international actors offers it more leverage in renegotiating the deal.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia and advanced in some areas on 9 September.
• Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to manufacture a guise of legitimacy and legality around ongoing local elections in occupied regions of Ukraine.

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