US doubts success of Ukrainian counteroffensive – media

American intelligence believes that Ukraine's problems with the accumulation of troops, ammunition and equipment may lead to the fact that its military will "significantly lag behind" the original goals of Kyiv regarding the expected counteroffensive.

Source: The Washington Post, referring to one of the secret US military documents, as European Pravda reports

Details: A gloomy assessment marked "top secret", dated early February, warns of significant "force generation and sustainment shortfalls", as well as the likelihood that such an operation will lead only to "modest territorial gains". This is a noticeable departure from the Biden administration's public statements about the combat capability of the Ukrainian army.

The document, which was not previously disclosed, is one of many materials about US national security discovered online last week.

The document, which predicts only modest success in Ukraine's upcoming counteroffensive, indicates that Kyiv's strategy is to recapture territories in the east and move south in order to break Russia's land bridge to Crimea. Powerful Russian defensive fortifications, combined with enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive, " the document writes.

The marking of the document indicates that the information was obtained using agent and radio intelligence, probably using secret methods used by the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency – ed.) and the National Security Agency. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which appears to have prepared the document, declined to comment, as did the National Security Council.

In addition to the leaked document, US officials said that the prospects for a modest outcome of the spring offensive are also supported by a classified assessment by the National Intelligence Council. This assessment, which was recently presented to a narrow circle of people on Capitol Hill, showed that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to reclaim as much territory as Kyiv won last fall during a stunning breakthrough in the east and south of the country, say people familiar with the matter.

In the weeks following the period described in the Merger Document, US officials held talks with the Ukrainian side to make sure Kyiv's offensive ambitions matched its capabilities, US officials said on condition of anonymity.

The exchange of views at the highest level took place in mid-March during a telephone conversation between General Mark A. Millie, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser to the President, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and their Ukrainian counterparts.

According to US officials, all sides came out of these conversations with the feeling that Ukraine is beginning to understand the limitations of what it can achieve in the offensive and is preparing accordingly. While the land bridge is unlikely to break, the interlocutors said, the United States hopes that gradual progress could at least jeopardise the free movement of Russian equipment and personnel in the corridor, which was a lifesaver for the invading forces.

Background: The US State Department claims that the incident with the publication of classified documents from the US Department of Defense will not affect its support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Earlier, the US Department of Justice launched an investigation into the leak of a huge number of US intelligence documents that have been posted on social media in recent weeks.

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