Russia protracts talks, likely eyeing new battlefield advantages – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russia is intentionally stalling negotiations for a temporary ceasefire to exploit such a delay and ramp up its offensive in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, aiming to secure tactical advantages on the front lines.

Source: ISW

Details: ISW believes that Russia is using the delay in negotiations as a tactical manoeuvre to capture as much territory as possible before a possible ceasefire.

Quote: "Russian forces are likely intensifying offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast to push towards the city of Zaporizhzhia amid continued Kremlin demands that Ukraine cede all of Zaporizhzhia Oblast to Russia. Russian forces are also likely trying to draw and fix Ukrainian forces to additional areas of the front line to allow Russian forces to prioritise certain efforts and make grinding gains across the theatre as the weather improves and Russia protracts negotiations."

Details: Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn, a spokesman for Ukrainian forces on the South front, stated on 17 March that Russian troops had stepped up their efforts on the Zaporizhzhia front, taking advantage of the improved weather. Voloshyn highlighted that as the mud dries and trees begin to regrow their foliage, Russian forces are seizing the opportunity to bolster their tactical positions by launching assaults in groups of five to seven soldiers.

Voloshyn also pointed out that, in March 2025, the daily number of First-Person View drones used by Russian forces had increased by about 50, reaching 400-420 drones per day.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 18 March:  

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin did not accept the US-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire along the front line and reiterated his demands for a resolution to the war that amount to Ukrainian capitulation.
• Trump and Putin agreed on a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against energy infrastructure, but the exact contours of the moratorium remain unclear at this time.
• Putin continues to hold the temporary ceasefire hostage, likely to extract further concessions from US President Donald Trump and delay or spoil negotiations for an enduring peace in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid intensified Russian offensive operations in the area, likely as part of efforts to leverage Russia's deliberate stalling of the temporary ceasefire proposal to make battlefield gains.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk directions. Ukrainian and Russian forces both recently advanced in the Kurakhove direction.
• The Russian military is reportedly increasing the number of its information and psychological operations units.

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