Innovations of Ukrainian electronic warfare allow effective response to Russian drone attacks – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that Ukrainian innovations in electronic warfare allow the defence forces to respond effectively to Russia's large-scale drone attacks.

Source: ISW

Details: The growth of domestic production of Shahed-type drones by Russia has enabled it to increase the number of drones used in strike campaigns against Ukraine. However, Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) innovations are allowing Ukraine to respond more effectively to these attacks. 

Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernyk told the military-focused outlet ArmyInform on 2 December that Russia has boosted its production of Shahed drone airframes while still relying on Iranian or Chinese imports for other components.

The analysts note that Chernyk's observations align with ISW's October 2024 assessment that Russia is leveraging domestic Shahed-type drone production to launch more of these drones against Ukraine. 

This trend is evident in the strike attacks Russia launched against Ukraine between October and November 2024, with Russian forces increasingly deploying between 80 to 100 (or more) Shahed and decoy drones as part of larger attacks.

For instance, Russian forces launched 110 Shahed drones and other unspecified drones, likely decoys, on Ukraine on the night of 1-2 December. 

The analysts suggest Russian forces likely use large numbers of Shahed-type and decoy drones to test and overwhelm Ukrainian air defence and mobile fire units, often launching them along with smaller numbers of cruise and ballistic missiles.

However, the report indicates that Ukraine appears to be countering this Shahed drone influx effectively. The number of Shahed or decoy drones that reportedly disappeared from radar (failing to reach intended targets) due to Ukrainian EW interference rose significantly in October and November 2024. 

On 2 October, Russian forces launched 105 Shahed drones against Ukraine, of which Ukrainian forces shot down 78, and 23 disappeared from radar due to EW interference (22 percent) as the Ukrainian Air Force stated. In contrast, Russian forces launched 110 Shaheds and decoys across Ukraine on the night of 1-2 December, 50 of which disappeared from radar due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (45 percent) and 52 of which were shot down by Ukrainian forces.

Chernyk highlighted Ukraine’s high shoot-down rates and noted that improved EW capabilities now allow Ukrainian forces to land Shaheds, cause them to disappear from radar, or even redirect them into Russian or Belarusian airspace.

Ukrainian EW interference is not only degrading Russian strike campaigns but also straining the joint Russian-Belarusian air defence system. Belaruski Hajun, an independent Belarusian military monitoring media outlet, reported that 38 Russian Shahed drones, a record number, violated Belarusian airspace on 24 and 25 November.

The report says that Belarus scrambled jets in response to the airspace violations, suggesting that it was unprepared for these errant drones and that Russia failed to anticipate or communicate the impact of Ukrainian interference to Belarus.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 2 December:

• Prominent voices within the Russian information space continue to emphasise that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is uninterested in a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine that results in anything less than total Ukrainian capitulation.
• Russia's increased domestic production of Shahed-type drones has allowed Russia to increase the number of drones it is using in strike packages launched at Ukraine, but Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) innovations are enabling Ukrainian forces to more effectively respond to Russian strike packages.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to minimise the war’s social impacts on the Russian populace while tacitly resetting the goalposts for what the Kremlin initially defined as victory in Ukraine.
• Pro-Kremlin Russian Telegram channel operators continue to resist Russian government efforts to deanonymise Russian social media accounts.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• The Russian military command is focusing on training additional Russian forces and improving Russian forces' tactical assault operations.

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