Russia rejects the possibility of freezing the frontline and insists on Ukraine's capitulation – ISW

Russia is demonstrating its readiness to escalate the war in Ukraine, declaring its unwillingness to freeze the frontline or come to a compromise.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, claimed that the Kremlin is supposedly open to negotiations but strongly rejects any "freezing" of the frontline or the creation of demilitarised zones. He insisted that the only way to achieve peace is by "removing" the reasons that "forced" Russia to launch a full-scale invasion.

Quote: "Demonstrating that Russia continues to uncompromisingly demand Ukraine's full capitulation. The Kremlin has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine relinquish areas of the four Ukrainian oblasts that the Kremlin has illegally annexed and that Russian forces do not currently occupy."

Details: According to analytical forecasts by the ISW, the Russian command may be planning a new offensive in the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. While this oblast is not part of the illegally annexed territories, its capture could contribute to Russia’s long-standing aim of fully occupying Donetsk Oblast.

The ISW has also recently indicated that Russian military commanders are likely intending to advance into the far southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to pursue their objective of taking complete control of Donetsk Oblast.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 26 November:

• Russian officials continue to demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than it currently occupies and is unwilling to accept compromises or engage in good-faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks.
• The Russian military's rate of advance since Fall 2024 has notably increased recently compared to its rate of advance in 2023 and the rest of 2024, but recent Western media reports comparing recent Russian gains to those at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion continue to mischaracterise the gradual and tactical nature of Russia's recent advances.
• US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby confirmed Ukraine's usage of US-provided ATACMS against Russia amid official Russian confirmation of recent Ukrainian ATACMS strikes.
• Russian forces launched a record number of drones against Ukraine on the night of 25-26 November as Russians continue to increase their use of decoy drones in long-range strike packages targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defence systems.
• Russian state media reported that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) replaced former Russian Southern Military District (SMD) and Southern Grouping of Forces commander Colonel General Gennady Anashkin with Eastern Military District (EMD) acting commander Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik.
• Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) amid a surge of recent Russian war crimes.
• The Russian State Duma is preparing the legal mechanisms to remove the Taliban from the Russian government’s official list of banned terrorist organisations.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• A Russian milblogger complained on 25 November that Russian forces often operate artillery without coordinating between different Russian elements, highlighting significant communications issues between armoured vehicle and infantry units.
• Russian authorities continue to incentivize service in Ukraine through one-time payment offers, likely in order to avoid conducting another partial involuntary reserve callup.

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