Russia worries about costs of continuing war in Ukraine – ISW

The Russian government is concerned about the continuing economic costs of the war in Ukraine and is trying to force its military to better adhere to discipline.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced on 23 November that Russia does not currently plan another partial involuntary reserve call-up as authorities continue relying on crypto-mobilisation strategies.

Peskov stated that Kremlin officials are not discussing a second wave of mobilisation and that Russia is recruiting adequate numbers of contract volunteer personnel. 

Meanwhile, other Russian officials are intensifying efforts to encourage contract volunteer enlistment. 

On 23 November, Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing soldiers who served in Ukraine to write off loans of up to 10 million roubles (approximately US$95,869) if courts initiated debt collection before 1 December 2024, likely aimed at motivating indebted Russians to enter into contracts with the Ministry of Defence.

The Russian government remains wary of the economic burden of the ongoing war in Ukraine, particularly regarding compensation for soldiers. 

On 22 November, the Russian Defence Ministry submitted a draft law requiring soldiers to repay their one-time enlistment bonuses if they committed "gross disciplinary offences" or avoided military duties. 

Putin has recently expressed concern over Russia's long-term economic stability, including by reducing payments for soldiers wounded in combat. 

The draft law likely aims to improve discipline among military personnel, as complaints about poor treatment by the Russian military command persist.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 23 November:

• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) likely attempted to cover up the recent removal of the acting commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, following widespread accusations within the Russian information space that Anashkin's subordinates submitted false frontline progress reports to superiors.
• Ukrainian military officials denied claims of North Korean personnel's presence in Kharkiv Oblast amid new unconfirmed reports that North Korean "technical advisers" are operating in occupied Mariupol.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Velyka Novosilka.
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia does not currently need to conduct another partial involuntary reserve call-up as Russian authorities continue leaning into crypto-mobilisation efforts.

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