Ukrainian government approves strategy to tackle predicted decline in Ukrainian population to 25 million by 2051

The Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has predicted that Ukraine's population could decline to 25.2 million by 2051. To minimise the consequences of this crisis, the Cabinet of Ministers has approved the Strategy for Demographic Development of the country for the period up to 2040.

Source: a document published on the Cabinet of Ministers website

Quote: "Taking into account... the challenges and threats that will continue after the end of hostilities or the termination or cancellation of martial law in Ukraine, the population of Ukraine, according to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences, may decrease to 28.9 million people by 2041, and to 25.2 million people by 2051."

Details: The reasons for this are the war, low birth rate, migration (including due to Russia's armed aggression), high premature mortality, labour market imbalance, and others.

The Strategy states that as of the date of the All-Ukrainian population census on 5 December 2001, the population of Ukraine was 48.5 million, and as of July 2024, the country's population was estimated to be 35.8 million, of which 31.1 million people lived "in the territories where public authorities exercise their powers in full".

The document emphasises that "Ukraine needs a systemic strategic solution that will minimise demographic risks and mitigate threats, ensure a balanced long-term reproduction of the population, the necessary amount of human capital and the workforce for martial law and post-war economic recovery and the formation of demographic sustainability".

The Strategy points to the need to "create an environment favourable to the birth and upbringing of children, ensuring the economic self-sufficiency of families".

This refers to security, development of the country (including critical and social infrastructure), access to housing, quality healthcare, jobs, etc.  

The need for those Ukrainians who are currently living abroad to return to Ukraine is also emphasised.

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