38% of Ukrainians consider restoration of Ukraine's borders as of January 2014 a victory – survey

A poll has shown that 83% of Ukrainians are confident in Ukraine's victory, with 38% defining it as the withdrawal of Russian troops and the restoration of borders to their state as of January 2014 – that is, with Crimea and Donbas in their entirety.

Source: the poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre, a Ukrainian non-governmental public policy think tank

Quote: "A total of 83% of respondents believe in Ukraine's victory in the war, [with varying levels of confidence across regions]: 72% of residents in the south, 75% in the east, 87% in the west, and 88% in the central regions. Conversely, 11% do not believe in a victory, ranging from 7% in the central region to 21% in the south."

Details: The poll reveals that 38% of those who believe in victory define it as the expulsion of Russian forces from the whole of Ukraine and the restoration of the country’s borders as of January 2014.

Additionally, 17.5% of respondents view victory as the destruction of Russian forces and the fostering of an internal uprising or the collapse of Russia. A total of 17% define victory as restoring the status quo as of 23 February 2022, while 7.5% see it as expelling Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory, excluding occupied Crimea. Meanwhile, 8% consider the end of the war a victory, even if Russian forces remain in territories captured after 24 February 2022.

In addition, 47% of respondents believe that authorisation from Western countries to use their weapons to strike targets in Russia is more likely to lead to peace in Ukraine than mere negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which is supported by only 29%. Among those who believe in Ukraine's victory, 52% support the unrestricted use of Western weapons, whereas 56% of those who do not believe in victory prefer negotiations.

Respondents were also asked about their attitudes towards Ukrainian military operations on Russian territory. A total of 58% expressed support for such actions, while 20% opposed them, and 7% remained indifferent.

For reference: The survey was conducted from 20 to 26 September 2024 using the face-to-face method in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government, where no hostilities were taking place.

The survey was conducted using a stratified multi-stage sampling technique with random selection. The sample structure reflects the demographic structure of the adult population of the surveyed areas as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, gender, and type of settlement).

A total of 2,016 respondents aged 18 and older were interviewed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. At the same time, additional systematic sample deviations may be caused by consequences of Russian aggression, in particular, the forced evacuation of millions of citizens.

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