Commander of assault detachment that fought in Ukraine arrested in Russia – ISW

Russian authorities reportedly arrested Vladimir "Beliy" Novikov, commander of an assault detachment from the 110th Motorised Rifle Brigade. There are several possible reasons behind the arrest: one suggests Novikov attempted to stop Chechens from supplying drugs to the military; another claims his unauthorised development of an anti-drone system led to the action, and the third points to the deaths of Russian drone operators during an assault on the Pokrovsk front as a potential cause.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Quote: "Russian actress Yana Poplovskaya, numerous Russian milbloggers (including supporters of arrested former Russian officer Igor Girkin), and Russian neo-nationalist outlet Tsargrad reported as early as 13 September that Russian authorities arrested an assault detachment commander of the 110th Motorised Rifle Brigade Vladimir Novikov, also known under the alias 'Beliy'. Poplovskaya published an appeal asking Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov to return Novikov to the frontlines, noting that Novikov had played a key role in the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and Krasnohorivka, has three state courage orders, and has received many of letters from his subordinates demanding his release."

Details: Some of Novikov's subordinates and several milbloggers also said they joined the detachment solely because "Beliy" inspired them.

Poplovskaya and a Russian milblogger who claims to have worked with Novikov noted that he had been arrested after attempting to stop Chechens from supplying drugs to the military. According to Poplovskaya, the Chechens retaliated by filing a false complaint against Novikov.

A milblogger associated with Novikov suggested that the Russian military command might have disapproved of his efforts to train Russian soldiers and convicts from the Storm-Z unit to counter Ukrainian drones. The blogger claimed that the command was more focused on advancing their own career ambitions. He further revealed that he and Novikov independently developed a drone countermeasure system called "seizure of the small sky" to train specialists in drone defence, which reportedly contradicted headquarters protocol.

Russian officials have not publicly acknowledged Novikov's arrest, and Belousov has not yet responded to any requests.

Tsargrad, Russian propaganda outlet, notably connected Novikov's arrest to the recent deaths of prominent Russian military bloggers and drone operators from the 87th Separate Rifle Regiment of the 1st Slavic Motorised Rifle Brigade, Dmitry Lysakovsky (alias Goodwill) and Lieutenant Colonel Sergei Gritsai (alias Ernest), who reportedly died on the night of 12 September.

Lysakovsky and Gritsai were unexpectedly deployed in a direct assault operation on 11 September, alongside at least 12 other long-range aerial reconnaissance specialists. The operation resulted in 14 deaths on the Pokrovsk front.

Tsargrad speculated that the deaths of Lysakovsky and Gritsai, along with Novikov's arrest, could be connected, as both Lysakovsky and Gritsai had raised concerns about drug use among combat troops.

The two cases may also be linked to the Russian military command's growing desperation to field more infantry in order to maintain the initiative on the Pokrovsk and Donetsk fronts. Russian sources highlight that the assault occurred shortly after the command disbanded Lysakovsky‘s and Gritsai’s drone detachment.

A Russian blogger and former Storm-Z instructor claims that the Russian military command has increasingly started to use the 1st Slavic Motorised Rifle Brigade, especially niche specialised units, in assault operations and that the 51st Motorised Rifle Brigade's leadership is guided by the slogan: "We do not need smart people, we are smart ourselves. We need assaults [and] meat".

Quote: "ISW had previously observed the Russian higher military command dismiss and imprison some popular and effective military commanders who raised concerns about the tempo of Russian operations and persistent issues with Russia's campaign in Ukraine.

The Russian military leadership and government are continuing to reduce the class of semi-independent Russian military innovators, specialists, and irregular commanders to advance force centralisation objectives, maintain the offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, and compensate for personnel shortages."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 21 September:

• Ukrainian forces conducted another successful drone strike against Russian missile and ammunition storage facilities as well as a mobile radar system in Russia overnight on 20 to 21 September.
• The Kremlin appears to be reorganising Russia's decentralised, regional volunteer recruitment campaigns into a federal effort, indicating that Russia is struggling to meet the manpower demands of its war in Ukraine despite previous claims that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast caused a spike in Russia's volunteer recruitment.
• The Russian military leadership and government are continuing to reduce the class of semi-independent Russian military innovators, specialists, and irregular commanders to advance force centralisation objectives, maintain the offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, and compensate for personnel shortages.
• Iran reportedly did not send mobile launchers for the Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles it recently supplied to Russia, likely due to a decision to prioritise sending additional missiles over bulky and easily replaceable launchers.
• Russian officials have designated 47 countries as having opposing and dangerous moral attitudes to Russia, highlighting that the Kremlin is reviving a Soviet-era tactic and mindset that defines a clear ideological division in the world.
• Russian milblogger analyses of Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to suggest that the Kremlin perceives Western commitment to Ukraine as feeble.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces advanced north of the city of Kharkiv and near Kupiansk, Kreminna, Toretsk, and southwest of the city of Donetsk.  
• The Kremlin has not fully suppressed localised protests organised by wives of Russian mobilised servicemen since declaring partial mobilisation on 21 September 2022.

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