Ukraine managed to use momentum and launched incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast despite Russia's awareness – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that the Ukrainian military was able to take advantage of the situation to launch its operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, despite the fact that Russia had known about and had been preparing for it for months.

Source: ISW

Details: In the lead-up to August 2024, Russian authorities were reportedly aware of the looming risk of a potential Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast but failed to implement sufficient preventive measures. 

On 20 September, The Guardian reported, citing Russian government and military documents acquired by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast, that Russian units stationed there had persistently alerted the military command about the likelihood of a Ukrainian offensive starting as early as late 2023.

The documents, reviewed by The Guardian but not independently verified, reveal that local commanders had repeatedly called for enhanced training drills for personnel in Kursk Oblast, the establishment of additional defensive fortifications, and the preparation of trenches and equipment to repel a potential attack.

One document highlighted that military units deployed along the international border were, on average, operating at just 60 to 70% of their intended strength, primarily manned by inadequately trained reservists as of June 2024.

Quote: "Russian authorities do not appear to have made any substantive efforts to improve the preparedness of the Russian military units serving in border areas of Kursk Oblast or construct additional fortifications along the international border prior to the incursion, and Russian authorities may have decided to ignore these requests due to a miscalculation of Ukraine's ability to advance deep into Kursk Oblast."

More details: The report states that these documents support the ISW's recent assessment that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the invasion of Kursk Oblast, despite Russian authorities reporting that an invasion was possible.

Quote: "Although Russian forces were likely aware of various points along the international border at which Ukraine could conduct an incursion, Ukrainian forces were able to leverage ambiguity around their operational intent and capabilities to maintain operational surprise.

Ukrainian forces also reportedly experimented with innovative techniques integrating ground activity and unmanned systems that ISW will not cover in-depth to maintain Ukrainian operational security. 

Ukraine's campaign in Kursk Oblast demonstrates that surprise is still possible even on a partially transparent battlefield where an adversary can observe force concentrations but not reliably discern an enemy's operational intent and capabilities."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 20 September:

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced two new loan mechanisms worth up to €45 billion (roughly US$50 billion) and €35 billion (roughly US$39 billion) respectively during a visit to Kyiv on 20 September.
• Russian authorities were reportedly aware of the threat of a future Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast in the months leading up to August 2024 but failed to take relevant steps to address such a threat.
• These documents support ISW's recent assessment that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the incursion into Kursk Oblast despite Russian authorities' reported awareness of the possibility of an incursion.
• Russian officials attempted to use a meeting with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to legitimise Russia's occupation of Ukraine and promote false narratives about alleged Ukrainian human rights abuses.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Vovchansk and Siversk.
• Russian state media is increasingly emphasising the participation of foreign nationals in the Russian war effort in Ukraine, likely to reassure domestic audiences that Russia continues to recruit sufficient manpower and will not need to declare another mobilisation wave.

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