Ukraine has to destroy Russian air defence to use F-16s – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that in order to use the F-16s that have arrived in Ukraine, the defence forces should focus on defeating Russian air defence in the Russian rear and on the occupied Ukrainian territories with Western long-range weapons.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukraine reported that it had received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the arrival of the F-16 aircraft in Ukraine on 4 August.

In this regard, he especially thanked Denmark, the Netherlands and the United States.

Quote: "ISW continues to assess that Ukraine will need a substantial number of F-16 jets in order to field them at the scale necessary for Ukraine to succeed in integrating fixed wing aircraft into its wider air defence umbrella.

Ukraine will also notably need to continue efforts to target Russian air defence assets within the Russian rear and in occupied Ukraine with Western-provided long-range weapons to enable its use of F-16 jets."

Details: Experts have noted that Russian military bloggers have responded to the arrival of F-16 jets by attempting to minimise their potential impact on the battlefield. This response undercuts Russian propaganda efforts, which have sought to depict the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons as a critical and unacceptable "red line".

Several Russian bloggers have stated that the Western and Ukrainian media are exaggerating the arrival of the F-16s to deflect attention from setbacks on the battlefield. Many bloggers quickly shifted their focus to how Russian forces would aim to target and eliminate the aircraft.

In the Russian media space, commentators and officials often contend that the supply of Western arms to Ukraine constitutes a red line, which, if breached, would necessitate a heightened Russian response. Nevertheless, Russia has consistently shown that its invocation of "red lines" is a tactic to deter the West from providing additional military support to Ukraine.

Western and Ukrainian strategies have crossed these self-declared Russian "red lines" multiple times since the full-scale war began without provoking a substantial Russian reaction. Statements from Russian military bloggers indicate that this trend will likely continue with the deployment of F-16s.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 4 August:  

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on 4 August.
• Ukraine confirmed that it has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets.
• Russian milbloggers responded to the arrival of F-16s by trying to downplay their potential battlefield effects—directly undermining Russian information operations intended to frame the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons systems as an uncrossable "red line".
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances east of Pokrovsk, west of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
• The Russian defence industry reportedly continues to produce missiles using Western-sourced components.

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