Putin tries to prepare successors to regime from among his relatives and children of officials – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has suggested that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is trying to prepare possible successors to his regime from among his children and relatives, as well as the children of other high-ranking Russian officials.

Source: ISW

Details: On 17 June, Vladimir Putin dismissed several deputy defence ministers: Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova, and Army General Pavel Popov. Their replacements include deputy defence ministers Anna Tsivileva and Pavel Fradkov, with Leonid Gornin stepping in as First Deputy Defence Minister.

Anna Tsivileva, who is Putin’s first cousin once removed and married to the newly appointed Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, also serves as the chairperson of the Kremlin-backed Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation. She previously served as a member of the Council on Issues of Trusteeship in the Social Sphere under the Russian Government in 2019.

Pavel Fradkov, son of Mikhail Fradkov, the former Prime Minister and longest-serving Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), has held several significant roles. Since 2021, he has been the First Deputy Administrator of the Presidential Administration. His prior positions include Deputy Head of the Federal Agency for State Property Management (Rosimushchestvo) from 2012 to 2015 and a post at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ (MFA) Department of Pan-European Cooperation from 2005 to 2012. His brother, Pyotr Fradkov, chairs the Russian state-owned Promsvyazbank and recently engaged with Evghenia Guțul, the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, on 9 April, possibly in efforts to destabilise Moldova.

Leonid Gornin has an extensive background in finance, having served as the First Deputy Minister of Finance since May 2018 and as Deputy Minister of Finance from 2012 to 2018. He also held the position of Minister of Finance and Tax Policy for Novosibirsk Oblast from 2010 to 2011.

Putin’s recent appointments highlight a trend of installing economists in senior positions within the Russian Ministry of Defence. This shift was marked by the replacement of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on 12 May with former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, an economist by profession. Additionally, former Russian Deputy Defence Minister Colonel General Yury Sadovenko was replaced by Oleg Savelyev, a former Deputy Economic Minister and Federation Council Accounts Chamber Auditor, on 20 May.

Quote from the ISW: "These appointments suggest that Putin is prioritising the appointment of officials whom he deems to be loyal to the regime and economists to improve Russia’s defence industrial base (DIB).

Putin also may be attempting to groom possible successors to his regime from the pool of his children and relatives and children of other senior officials."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 17 June: 

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may take steps to enhance NATO's nuclear deterrence, eliciting varying responses from senior Kremlin officials.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin dismissed four deputy defence ministers and replaced them with a "close relative," the son of a former Russian prime minister, and an economist on 17 June in an ongoing purge of officials in the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD).
• Tsivileva's, Fradkov's, and Gornin’s appointments support Putin’s recent efforts to introduce his relatives and the children of other senior Russian officials to the Russian public and to install economic advisors to the MoD to improve the wartime economy.
• Russian military bloggers largely focused on celebrating the dismissal of Pankov, Tsalikov, Shevtsova, and Popov and largely overlooked the apparent nepotism that benefited two of the new deputy defence ministers.
• A Russian state media outlet manipulated an interview with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi to blame Ukraine for strikes against the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in an attempt to legitimise Russia's illegal occupation of Ukraine.
• Ukraine's Western partners continue efforts to train more Ukrainian pilots on Western-provided F-16 fighter jets.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
• Russia is reportedly experiencing issues with producing artillery shells and select artillery systems.

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