Russian offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast aim to divert Ukrainian Forces and enable Russia's strategic advances – ISW

Russian offensive operations along the border in Kharkiv Oblast likely have the strategic goal of engaging and consolidating Ukrainian forces on this axis to enable Russian advances into other areas in Ukraine’s east.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW reported that Russian forces had launched an offensive along the Russia-Ukraine border in the northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of 10 May and achieved significant tactical gains. 

Russian troops are likely conducting an initial offensive phase in northern Kharkiv Oblast, which has limited operational objectives but is aimed at achieving a strategic effect of diverting troops and equipment from other critical areas of the front in Ukraine’s east.

As of now, Russian forces have initiated two limited operations in this area, including one to the north of Kharkiv towards the village of Lyptsi and another to the north-east of Kharkiv near the city of Vovchansk.

Ukraine’s Defence Ministry reported that Russian armoured assault groups consisting of an unknown number of people and weapons attempted to break through Ukrainian defences near Vovchansk early in the morning. They added that fighting in the area continued after Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian attacks.

NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data as of 10 May indicate that intense fighting may have taken place in and around the settlements of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna and Borysivka. 

Reuters reported that a high-ranking Ukrainian military source had stated that Russian forces had advanced at least a kilometre into the area around Vovchansk. ISW assesses that the Russian troops have advanced towards Vovchansk but has not seen sufficient evidence to assess the approximate extent of the fighting in the immediate area.

Russian forces are likely to use their tactical foothold in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast in the coming days to intensify their offensive operations and conduct the initial phase of their advance, presumably aiming to push Ukrainian forces away from the border with Belgorod Oblast and advance to the extent that their artillery can fire on Kharkiv. 

However, the limited efforts currently employed by Russian forces do not indicate that they are conducting a large-scale offensive operation to encircle and occupy the city of Kharkiv.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 10 May:

• Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of 10 May and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine.
• Russian forces will likely leverage their tactical foothold in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the coming days to intensify offensive operations and pursue the initial phase of an offensive effort likely intended to push back Ukrainian forces from the border with Belgorod Oblast and advance to within tubed artillery range of Kharkiv City.
• The limited efforts that Russian forces are currently conducting do not suggest that Russian forces are immediately pursuing a large-scale sweeping offensive operation to envelop, encircle, and seize Kharkiv City, however.
• Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv international border likely have the strategic objective of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces to this axis to enable Russian advances in other areas of eastern Ukraine.
• ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely struggle to seize Kharkiv City should they aim to do so.
• Russian forces likely decided to launch offensive operations along the international border area to take the best advantage of the relatively brief time left before Western aid arrives at the Ukrainian frontline at scale.
• Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk stated that the war in Ukraine will enter a critical phase in the next two months and commented on recent Russian advances around Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka.
• US President Joe Biden approved up to US$400 million worth of military assistance for Ukraine as part of the Presidential Drawdown Authority Fund on 10 May.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the night of 9 to 10 May against an oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast that Ukrainian forces previously struck in March 2024.
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is retaining his position in the Russian government for Russian President Vladimir Putin's new term of office, and there have been speculations but no confirmations of changes to Putin's cabinet.
• US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb stated that US defence officials had partnered with SpaceX to stop the Russian military's unauthorised use of Starlink internet terminals in frontline areas of Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
• Russian and Belarusian authorities continue to illegally deport Ukrainian citizens, including children, to Russia and Belarus.

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