Estonian intelligence forecasts increase in intensity of hostilities in Ukraine in coming weeks

The Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces has indicated in its weekly report that Russian troops are continuing to maintain the pace of their operational advance and initiative on the Luhansk and Donetsk fronts.

Source: Estonian public broadcaster ERR, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Russian forces have increased the number of mechanised units due to improved weather conditions and passability. They also commenced the reorganisation of units along the entire war zone. In this regard, the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre believes that the intensity of hostilities may increase in the coming weeks.

In addition, Estonian intelligence believes that the threat of hostilities in Ukraine's northeast may grow. The Russian Armed Forces are continuing terror bombings and sabotage activities in Ukraine's north.

Mining activities are ongoing in the area.

Ukraine reportedly persists in its deep strikes on Russian oil refineries, demonstrating its ability to hit targets in the deep rear. To date, Ukrainian activities have been systematic and create conditions for the isolation of Crimea in the future, the intelligence centre noted.

Russian forces are maintaining pressure on the Kupiansk-Makiivka-Siversk line on the Luhansk front. Russian troops are continuing offensive actions on the Makiivka front near the village of Terny in order to take control of the Zherebets River coastline. Although Russian soldiers are holding the initiative, no significant progress has been made.

No significant changes have been observed on the Avdiivka front. However, it remains the main focus of Russia's offensive actions. Their advance to the west of the war-torn town of Bakhmut can be considered insignificant. Pressure towards the settlement of Chasiv Yar has also increased, but with little success. Russian forces are maintaining pressure to the west and southwest of Donetsk and looking for gaps in Ukrainian defences.

Russia has eased its pressure in the area of the village of Robotyne.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are continuing to hold a foothold on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River, the intelligence centre added.

Background:

• UK Defence Intelligence reported that Russia had increased the number of attacks on the Novopavlivka front but to no avail.
• Earlier, UK intelligence reported on Russia's unsuccessful attempts to disguise its military facilities to prevent Ukraine from destroying them.

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