UK intelligence assesses sanctions' impact on supply of resources to Russian defence industry

UK Defence Intelligence has explained how sanctions are affecting the supply of critical components for the Russian defence industry.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 1 April, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The UK intelligence noted that Russia's isolation limits the number of countries with which it can trade directly, thus increasing the time and cost to obtain goods that it could previously purchase freely.

The review said a study by the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies found that third countries charge price premiums of over 60% for exports of certain sanctioned goods to Russia.

"While Russia has increased production of key munitions most heavily used in Ukraine, such as artillery shells, the impact of sanctions is highly likely greatest on Russia's more advanced and complex weapon systems. These systems in production and development almost certainly have an increased reliance on foreign components and technology," analysts noted.

UK Defence Intelligence stressed that sanctions are likely to further hamper both the supply and demand for Russian arms and significantly obstruct payment mechanisms to Russia.

"This has almost certainly contributed to a significant decline in Russia’s arms exports and increased delivery delays, including to some of its most important remaining arms customers," the UK intelligence added.

UK Defence Intelligence cites data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, indicating that Russia's share of the global arms market fell to 11% between 2019 and 2023, down from 21% between 2013 and 2018.

Background: 

• On 31 March, UK intelligence noted that Russia is trying to protect its facilities in the port of Novorossiysk from Ukrainian attacks.
• On 30 March, UK Defence Intelligence reported that Russia had made little progress on the front in recent weeks but maintained a quantitative advantage and was able to absorb losses.
• On 29 March, UK Defence Intelligence analysed the consequences of an attack carried out by Ukraine's Air Force on the city of Sevastopol, Russian-occupied Crimea, on 24 March 2024, which targeted the communications centre of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF).

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