Downing of 3 Su-34s in Kherson Oblast alters Russian dynamics – UK Defence Intelligence

UK Defence Intelligence has assessed that the downing of three Russian Su-34 fighter jets over the south of Ukraine has affected the operations of the Russians on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 6 January, as reported by European Pravda

Details: UK intelligence recalled that Ukrainian defenders downed three Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers on the southern front on 22 December.

Quote: "Previously, Russian tactical air power had been playing a key role in the south, especially attacking Ukraine's bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River," the analysts said, adding that after 22 December, Russian fighter jets "almost completely ceased crewed operations" for some time.

"There is a realistic possibility that the lack of air support contributed to the failure of an attempt by Russian Ground Forces' 18th Combined Arms Army to clear the bridgehead," UK Defence Intelligence believes.

The report notes, however, that in recent days Russia has again intensified tactical airstrikes in the area of the Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River, "at a lower level than before the shootdowns" of the Su-34s.

"This once again demonstrates that Russia's inability to establish air superiority in the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war continues to undermine their daily operations," the review concludes.

Background: 

• On 5 January, UK Defence Intelligence reported that ground combat operations in Ukraine over the past week have featured either a static front line or very gradual, localised advances by Russian forces in critical areas.

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