ISW believes Russian troops are preparing to attack Kupiansk in coming weeks

Russian forces may step up their attempts to seize Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast in the upcoming weeks, although they are ill-equipped to launch extensive offensive operations there.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts say that compared to other Russian groupings, the Russian forces in this area appear to be less exhausted. The circumstances surrounding Russian forces appear to be conducive to the escalation of operations on the Kupiansk front (Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts).

The Russians intend to make territorial gains in areas that are more important from an operational point of view than those areas which the Russian troops are currently trying to seize.

Ukrainian officials said that Russian forces are aiming to capture Kupiansk and Borova (35 kilometres west of Svatove) in the winter of 2024.

ISW reports that the capture of these cities is likely to displace Ukrainian troops from the eastern bank of the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast and create conditions for future Russian offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The pace of Russian operations on the Kupiansk front and the obvious configuration of Russian forces in the occupied oblasts of Luhansk and Kharkiv generally do not indicate an imminent Russian offensive along the entire Kupiansk-Lyman line.

Military analysts noted that at the moment, Russian troops have not amassed enough forces in Belgorod Oblast to launch large-scale offensive operations elsewhere in the north or northeast of Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukrainian officials have not publicly reported a sudden build-up of Russian forces on the Kupiansk front.

Russian forces seem to be gradually rebuilding units that suffered significant losses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in September 2022 and the failed Russian offensive in the winter-spring of 2023. The Russian command intends to use these relatively well-rested and restored units to intensify local offensive operations, which began in October 2023.

Russian troops operating on the Kupiansk front and consisting mainly of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Arms Army (both of the Western Military District) have not actively participated in major offensive operations since the culmination of the Russian winter-spring offensive in April 2023.

Russian regular troops on the Kupiansk front are transferred mainly from the Western Military District and for this reason have a certain organisational coherence, unlike Russian troops in other parts of Ukraine, which are often transferred from various military districts and airborne troops. The relative coherence of the grouping of forces of the Russian Armed Forces on the Kupiansk front allows for a more effective command and control of these forces.

It remains unclear whether these elements of the Russian Armed Forces are capable of conducting large-scale offensive operations which would be much more effective than the disorganised and costly Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.

The Telegraph reported on 4 January that an unnamed source "close" to the Ukrainian military said Russian troops could conduct a "ground offensive" as early as 15 January. A spokesman for the command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant Colonel Vladimir Fityo, in response to the Telegraph article on 5 January, said that the Ukrainian military had not recorded changes in the composition of Russian troops in Kharkiv Oblast or on the territory of Russia bordering Kharkiv Oblast, and that Russian troops are continuing offensive operations in the area of Synkivka in order to capture Kupiansk. 

Oleh Syniehubov, the head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, also responded to the Telegraph article, noting that Russian troops were not concentrating in Kharkiv Oblast in preparation for a large-scale offensive, and that the intensity of Russian attacks on the Kupiansk front had decreased over the past three days due to bad weather conditions. Syniehubov noted that Russian troops are using the slow pace of operations caused by bad weather conditions to redeploy reinforcements to the front line, as well as to prepare and coordinate their units.

Fityo and Syniehubov's comments are in line with ISW's assessment that Russian forces could intensify offensive operations, but not launch a full-scale offensive operation with the existing grouping of forces on the Kupiansk front. Russian forces may be gradually building up, as Ukrainian officials have reported that as of October 2023, the Russian military had concentrated more than 100,000 troops on the Kupiansk and Lyman fronts.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 5 January:  

• Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, in the coming weeks and have a grouping of forces in the area that appears to be less degraded than Russian groupings responsible for offensive efforts elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Russian targets in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai on the night of 4-5 January.
• Russian forces conducted Shahed 131/136 drone strikes and missile strikes against frontline areas in Ukraine overnight on 5 January.
• Germany announced a new military assistance package to Ukraine on 4 January.
• The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will convene on 10 January and discuss Russia’s reported use of North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine, a likely violation of UNSC resolutions.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov strangely offered to exchange 20 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) for lifting sanctions against his family members.
• The Moscow Arbitration Court ordered Google to unblock four YouTube channels belonging to Russian state-affiliated channel 5TV on 5 January, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the March presidential elections.
• Russian forces made a confirmed advance near Avdiivka as positional engagements continued along the entire frontline.
• International sanctions are reportedly impeding Russia’s Su-34 aircraft production.
• The Kremlin continues to solidify federal administrative oversight of local and regional occupation administrations in occupied Ukraine.

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