Putin to avoid centring his presidential campaign focus on war in Ukraine – ISW

Experts from the Institute of the Study of War (ISW), having analysed the data gathered, have come to the conclusion that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will avoid focusing his presidential campaign on the war in Ukraine.

Source: the ISW

Details: The analysts indicate that, according to Russian media reports, Russian President Putin will not centre his 2024 presidential campaign on the war in Ukraine and will rather concentrate on "stability in Russia" and criticism of the West.

The report states that on 8 November, Russian independent media outlet Meduza reported with reference to two sources with close connections to the Russian presidential administration that the presidential campaign aims to depict Putin as a leader who made Russia an "island of calm."

Meduza's sources state that Putin’s ratings rise after his speeches in which he criticises the West, and that Russian propaganda will contribute to this by increasingly playing up stories about "difficulties" in Western countries and the alleged inability of the United States to support Ukraine and Israel at the same time.

The source has also reported that the war in Ukraine would only be discussed in the campaign if there was a "very serious [Russian] success" on the front, not just "positional warfare".

Putin is allegedly getting ready to announce his presidential campaign this month, and Russian sources insist that it will not actively promote the war in Ukraine.

The report recalls that Putin has previously downplayed the occupiers’ offensive near Avdiivka, calling it "active defence".

Reportedly, Kremlin-backed Edinaya Rossiya (United Russia) party had supposedly realised that using the war in Ukraine in its election campaign before the September 2023 State Duma elections was ineffective.

Yet the analysts state that the concerns of the Kremlin and United Russia about domestic support for the war do not indicate that this party or Putin’s domination in Russian politics faces any potential threat in the upcoming presidential election.

"This campaign framing, if it occurs, would double down on Putin’s refusal to mobilise Russian society to a wartime footing and may increase the information cost necessary to support a long-term war effort in Ukraine," the experts say.

Key takeaways of ISW from 8 November:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 8 November.
• Select Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian commanders may be making operational and tactical decisions using maps of the battlefield in Ukraine that differ from tactical reality.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted 44 Russian military and internal affairs officers, including Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Andrei Kuzmenko, to general officer rank on 8 November.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly avoid centring his 2024 presidential campaign on the war in Ukraine and will rather focus on Russia’s alleged stability and criticisms of the West.
• Ukrainian partisans and military intelligence assassinated a prominent Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official accused of conducting war crimes in occupied Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 8 November and advanced in some areas.
• Russia is reportedly attempting to reacquire components for military equipment from states to which it previously sold the equipment, including Egypt, Pakistan, Brazil, and Belarus.
• Russian occupation administrations continue to create new administrative bodies meant to further integrate occupied territories into Russian governance systems.

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