Russia prepares for new offensive, accumulates artillery munition – Estonian Defence Intelligence

Russia currently has artillery shells for a year of active hostilities in Ukraine, and the intensification of its forces in the areas of Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast) and Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast) may indicate the preparation of a new offensive.

Source: This was announced by Ants Kiviselg, head of the defence intelligence centre of the Estonian Defence Forces, as reported by European Pravda with reference to ERR 

Details: According to the Estonian military, the main attack directions for Russia in Ukraine are now two sections of the front – Avdiivka-Marinka and Kupiansk-Lyman. If 20-40 attacks per day were recorded in these areas in the summer, now 76 attacks take place on this section of the front on average. 

Estonian intelligence believes that Russia calls these actions active defence, probably masking the current unsuccessful offensive actions, to cover the preparation of a new offensive.

Quote: "I must admit that the actions taken by the Russian Federation in the east and northeast may lead to the fact that in the coming weeks the Russian army will try to develop success, send additional forces there and go on the offensive on that sector of the front," Kiviselg said.

This version is evidenced by the fact that 350,000 artillery shells were delivered from North Korea to Russia. According to the head of Estonian military intelligence, this is a significant replenishment of warehouses, since only about four million shells must have remained in Russia.

"If we have seen that Russia fires about 10,000 shells in one day, then the amount of ammunition that North Korea sent should be enough for a month and a half," Kiviselg reflects.

The official also admits that Russia has finished preparing attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and they can be expected "in the coming weeks or a month".

Earlier this week, UK intelligence stated that Russia has launched a coordinated offensive on several fronts in the east of Ukraine, but expressed doubt that it would achieve its goals.

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