Russia will not be able to resume large-scale offensive operations due to lack of infantry – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the Russians "almost certainly" will not be able to resume "offensive operations at scale" entrusted to infantry, which is in short supply in Russia.

Source: ISW

Details: The review notes that Ukrainian officials have officially acknowledged that the Defence Forces have liberated Robotyne as Ukrainian forces continued to advance in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and near Bakhmut.

At the same time, the report said, Russian military commanders continue to deploy relatively elite Russian airborne troops, using them to defend vulnerable positions against Ukrainian counteroffensives.

ISW has previously noted that units of almost all Russian airborne units are operating in areas where Ukrainian troops are conducting counteroffensive operations, and this lateral redeployment again indicates that the occupiers may be using relatively elite units to reinforce critical sectors on the front line.

The analysts add that the Russian military command has steadily relied on the VDV (76th Guards Air Assault Division) formations for both offensive and defensive forces. The decline of these forces is likely to weaken Russia's ability to maintain complex defensive operations. In addition, it will almost certainly frustrate Russian intentions to resume large-scale offensive operations, which relied heavily on relatively elite infantry, which is currently in short supply in Russia.

Experts have not ignored statements by Ukrainian officials that Russian forces may want to resume a broader campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in autumn 2023, but they estimate that Russia has likely not replenished its missile stockpile after the scale of the winter 2022-2023 strikes.

Ukrainian officials have assessed that any future Russian strike campaign could use new tactics involving fewer missiles and more drones.

ISW has previously reported on the Russian military's capacity to innovate and learn throughout the war.

To quote the ISW’s Takeaways on 28 August:

• Ukrainian officials formally acknowledged that Ukrainian forces liberated Robotyne amid continued Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut.
• The Russian military command continues to expend relatively elite Russian airborne forces by deploying these troops to defend vulnerable positions against Ukrainian counter offensives.
• A Ukrainian intelligence official indicated that Russian forces may have marginally replenished their stocks of high-precision missiles through conservation in the summer of 2023.
• Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces may intend to resume a wider campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the autumn of 2023, but assessed Russia likely has not replenished its missile stocks to sustain a campaign on the scale of the winter 2022-2023 strikes.
• Ukrainian officials assessed that any upcoming Russian strike campaign may employ new tactics that use fewer missiles and more drones.
• Russian milbloggers continued to criticise the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) for ignoring ultranationalists’ complaints over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in the Kherson direction.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk, and did not make any confirmed advances.
• Russian lawmakers and the Russian information space expressed varied opinions about a proposed Russian State Duma bill that would deprive individuals of their acquired Russian citizenship for evading military registration and mobilisation.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on 28 August that partisans created an explosion at the barracks of a Chechen "Akhmat-1" Rosgvardia riot police (OMON) unit in Enerhodar in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

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