Putin forewarned of rebellion 2-3 days in advance but did not order to suppress it – WP

Russian President Vladimir Putin had been warned of a possible uprising 2-3 days before it broke out. However, when the rebellion began, he was paralysed and did not issue any orders for most of the day.

Source: The Washington Post, citing intelligence assessments provided to the media outlet, as well as Ukrainian and European officials, security and NATO officials, and a Russian diplomatic source who spoke on condition of anonymity

Details: The intelligence assessment provided to The Washington Post indicates that Russian secret services warned Putin 2-3 days in advance of a possible coup.

The publication’s sources say that measures were taken to tighten security at several strategic sites, including the Kremlin, where Putin's security staff had been expanded and handed out more weapons. However, no other actions were initiated.

A European official believes that Putin had time to make a decision to put down the rebellion and arrest the organisers.

Quote from the source: "Putin had time to take the decision to liquidate [the rebellion] and arrest the organizers. Then when it began to happen, there was paralysis on all levels … There was absolute dismay and confusion. For a long time, they did not know how to react."

More details: The sources said no orders were issued for most of the day [24 June – ed.].

The WP emphasises that such a description of events is consistent with CIA Director William Burns' public comments last week that for much of the 36 hours of the attempted coup, Russian secret services, military and decision-makers "appeared to be adrift".

This is also indicative of Putin's fear of a direct confrontation with a warlord like Prigozhin, financier of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), who had enjoyed the support of the Russian security establishment for a decade. Prigozhin became integral to the Kremlin's global operations, running troll farms that spread disinformation in the United States and paramilitary operations in the Middle East and Africa before officially taking a "vanguard position" in Russia's war against Ukraine.

In an interview, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Post that these intelligence assessments are "nonsense" and are spread by "people who have zero information".

European security officials say the absence of orders from the Kremlin's senior command left local officials to decide how to handle the situation when Wagner Group’s forces entered Rostov on the morning of 24 June.

Security officials reported that lacking clear orders, local military and security forces decided not to attempt to stop the heavily armed groups.

The sources said many people at local level could not believe that the Wagner uprising could have taken place without some kind of agreement with the Kremlin.

A senior Ukrainian security official stated that Russian local authorities did not receive any commands from the leadership.

Quote from the source: "From our point of view this is the biggest sign of the unhealthy situation inside Russia. The authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear command from the leadership, people don’t do anything. When the leadership is in turmoil and disarray, it [is] the same situation at the local level and even worse."

More details: Another official stressed that certain people in Russia supported Prigozhin and the idea that the leadership should be cleansed, and that "the fish is rotting from the head".

A senior NATO official said that some high-ranking officials in Moscow were likely ready to rally around Prigozhin if he managed to get his demands met: "There seem to have been important people in the power structures … who seem to have even been sort of waiting for this, as if his attempt had been more successful, they would also have joined the plot."

The source said many of the Russian army's rank-and-file also wished Prigozhin success in bringing about changes at the top of the Russian military, believing that "it would become easier for them to fight".

But other members of the security forces were horrified by the attempted coup and the Kremlin's gutless response, convinced that it was leading Russia into a time of profound turmoil, officials said.

A senior Russian diplomatic official said that "there was disarray".

Background:

• On the evening of 23 June, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the regular Russian army had launched a missile strike on the Wagner mercenaries’ rear camps. He therefore deployed 25,000 of his mercenaries "to restore justice".
• On 24 June, the Wagner mercenaries took control of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and seized military facilities in Voronezh and were on their way to Moscow, and the Russian capital was already preparing for defence.
• In an emergency address, dictator Vladimir Putin talked about betrayal and attempts to "organise a rebellion". Ukrainian intelligence had information that Putin had urgently left Moscow for his residence in Valdai.
• In the evening of the same day, after a conversation with Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Prigozhin said that his mercenaries were returning to their field camps. The criminal case against Prigozhin in Russia was promised to be closed, and he was to "go to Belarus".
• On 27 June, Prigozhin's business jet left the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don for Belarus, and another plane arrived there from St Petersburg.
• The FSB reported that the criminal case on "armed rebellion" against Yevgeny Prigozhin had been discontinued.

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