Parties still agreeing on details of agreement regarding Wagnerites – ISW

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), after the rebellion of the Wagner Group, the parties involved are still negotiating an agreement proposed by the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko.

Source: ISW

Details: Continued reports of a deal with the mediation of Belarusian dictator Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group's armed insurgency suggest the parties may still be in talks to clarify the details of the deal, according to analysts.

Russian sources continued to speculate on the details of this agreement on 28 June. Therefore, experts note, the widespread speculations about Wagner's position in Belarus indicate that certain aspects of the deal are still being finalised.

In addition, Russian sources suggest that Wagner's rebellion is already having a powerful effect on the Russian command structure.

The report notes that the sources publishing these assumptions have been mostly accurate in previous reports of changes in the Russian command, although the lingering and serious potential consequences associated with Prigozhin's armed rebellion may affect the accuracy of those sources. ISW cannot currently confirm any of these assumptions about a change in command, but it is clear that the armed insurgency continues to have significant implications for the information space.

The review also mentions reports in the Russian media about the arrest of Russian general Sergei Surovikin.

According to experts, if the Russian authorities do arrest Surovikin, the Kremlin is likely to use him and his henchmen as scapegoats to publicly explain why the Russian military and internal security agencies reacted poorly to the rebellion, and to justify a potential change in the Russian military leadership.

ISW previously reported on Surovikin's prominent ties to the Wagner Group, which makes the general a prime candidate for the role of scapegoat, regardless of the actual level of support he provided to the insurgency.

Analysts suggest that the Kremlin may try to assuage disdain for the defence chiefs by reducing the role of General Valery Gerasimov, overall theatre commander, in Ukraine operations, although he is likely to retain, at least nominally, the post.

The review also suggests that the Kremlin may have chosen deputy theatre commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky as the effective commander of military operations, as he is reportedly widely popular among Russians, including the ultra-nationalist community.

It is noted that the Kremlin will probably try to balance between appeasing the Ministry of Defence’s discontent and cleaning it of disloyal figures, without contradicting its rhetoric and actions. If this balance is too difficult for it to achieve, it may choose to pursue only one of the goals. In such a case, the Kremlin will almost certainly make a choice in favour of clearing disloyal figures, despite continued anger at the leadership of the Ministry of Defence.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 28 June:

• Continued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggests that involved parties may still be negotiating the specifics of the agreement.
• Russian sources speculated that Wagner’s rebellion is already having widespread impacts on the Russian command structure.
• Russian authorities reportedly arrested Army General Sergei Surovikin on 28 June, possibly indicating that the Kremlin intends to purge the MoD of figures viewed as disloyal.
• The Kremlin will likely attempt to balance a desire to mitigate the widespread disdain for MoD establishment figures that fueled Wagner’s rebellion while also trying to disempower those who may have sympathised with the rebellion.
• The Russian Duma is considering additional measures to increase control over the information space and promote self-censorship within broad internet communities.
• Belarus formally ratified an agreement on the establishment of joint Russian-Belarusian training centres in Belarus on 28 June.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held a phone conversation with the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran Major General Mohammad Bagheri on 28 June.
• Unconfirmed reports claim that Russian military police allegedly detained Wagner Group commanders in Syria.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted a strike on civilian infrastructure in Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast on the night of 27 June.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and conducted limited probing attacks on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River near the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast on 27 and 28 June.
• Russian sources reported on continued Russian efforts to clarify terms and conditions for military service.
• Russian and occupation officials continue efforts to deconflict legal discrepancies as part of the incorporation of occupied territories.

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