Military analysts predict how Putin will use position of African leaders

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will use his meeting with African leaders and their rhetoric to slow down the flow of Western aid to Ukraine.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW has reiterated that a delegation of seven African states met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on 17 June, following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 16 June, to propose a "generalised peace plan focused on resuming international trade".

At the meeting with the delegation, Putin said that the Kremlin welcomed the "balanced" approach of African states to resolving the war in Ukraine.

President of Comoros and current chairman of the African Union, Azali Assoumani, used words similar to the Kremlin's favourite "Russian World" rhetoric during the meeting with Putin regarding the war in Ukraine. He said that stability in Eastern Europe, Africa and the world depends on "fraternal relationships" between neighbouring Slavic "friendly nations".

Assoumani also stressed that peace in Ukraine is important for international food and energy security.

The ISW experts have said that Assoumani's comments and the inclusion of grain shipment guarantees in the peace plan indicate that the states participating in this proposal consider overcoming the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine to be their top priority.

Quote: "The delegation likely seeks to balance Ukraine and Russia to maintain long-standing bilateral relationships with Russia without fully tying themselves diplomatically to the Kremlin’s war."

More details: The experts have also added that the Kremlin is likely to use this offer to advance Russian information operations aimed at slowing down Western security assistance to Ukraine, and has shown no intention of engaging in any peace process.

The ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin regularly signals a false willingness to negotiate a settlement to the war in order to induce concessions from the West and dissuade Western leaders from further support for Ukraine.

Quote: "The Kremlin previously intensified this effort to set conditions for its winter-spring 2023 offensive and is likely reamplifying this information operation in an effort to weaken Western support for Ukraine during counteroffensive operations."

More details: The Kremlin has already used the same "vague peace plan" presented by China in spring 2023. And it has tried to use China's declared interest in negotiating a settlement to the war in Ukraine to achieve the desired closer ties with China.

Quote: "The Kremlin will likely use the outreach by these African states to pursue strengthened bilateral and multilateral engagement."

Background:

• On 16 June, a delegation from Africa arrived in Ukraine, including the presidents of South Africa, the Comoros, Senegal, Zambia and the prime minister of Egypt, as well as special representatives of Congo and Uganda. They want to act as peacemakers between Russia and Ukraine, as well as to agree on increasing the supply of grain and fertilisers from these two countries to their continent.
• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa named 10 main "components" of the African Union's position on the Russian-Ukrainian war.
• Following the meeting, Zelenskyy criticised the rhetoric of African leaders who called Russia's war against Ukraine a "conflict" or "crisis". The President was also surprised that African representatives emphasised their own grain and fertiliser crises, while omitting the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
• On 17 June, the African delegation met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said that his logic for the war against Ukraine was allegedly "flawless" in terms of international law and the UN Charter.

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