Russia is unable to conduct coordinated defence operations along entire front line – ISW

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's threats to move his troops to Bakhmut from other parts of the frontline could have been a move to blackmail the Russian military command into providing ammunition for Wagner mercenaries. As the Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov is forced to give in to the demands of individual unit commanders, doubts arise about the ability of the Russian Federation to conduct a coordinated defence campaign along the entire front line.

Source: Institute for the Study of War report

Details: According to the report, Kadyrov published a letter on 6 May in which he asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to order Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Rosgvardia chief Viktor Zolotov to authorise the redeployment of Chechen Akhmat units from "other areas" to Wagner's positions in the Bakhmut sector.

It is noted that the withdrawal of Chechen forces from other parts of the front would likely pose a risk to Russian defensive lines that Gerasimov and Shoigu or Putin did not seem to want to take.

The ISW said that Akhmat units had previously been spotted near Bilohorivka on the Svatove-Kreminna fronts and in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and their withdrawal from these positions could undermine Russian defensive efforts in the face of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The institute believes that Shoigu and Gerasimov, who show consistent loyalty to Putin's orders, could have decided to allocate ammunition for Wagner on the Russian president's instructions.

Quote: "Obviously, the successful joint blackmailing efforts of Kadyrov and Prigozhin indicate that Gerasimov does not actually control all Russian troops in Ukraine, despite the fact that he is the nominal commander of the entire theatre of operations. Gerasimov likely tried to take control of all Russian irregulars in the winter of 2023, but failed even before he lost Putin's favour in the spring.

Kadyrov likely supported Wagner's efforts to blackmail Russia's military command in order to restore his position in the Kremlin's power circle. Kadyrov used to hold an influential position in Putin's inner circle until he apparently lost favour, likely because his forces played a limited role in the active hostilities in Ukraine in the fall of 2022 and winter of 2023. Putin humiliated Kadyrov during their meeting on 13 March, where Kadyrov was visibly nervous when reporting on the role of Chechen fighters in Ukraine. Kadyrov likely took Prigozhin's threats to withdraw from Bakhmut as an opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of his forces against the backdrop of Gerasimov and Shoigu's inability to win decisive victories during the winter-spring offensive."

More details: The ISW believes that Gerasimov's need to negotiate with Prigozhin and Kadyrov indicates problems in the chain of command in the Russian army that will affect its ability to resist the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Quote: "Gerasimov's need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and the ability of these commanders to put pressure on him indicates that problems in the chain of command significantly affect the ability of the Russian military to conduct coordinated operations throughout the theatre. The position of commander-in-chief should, in principle, allow Gerasimov to command any Russian unit or ground forces commander in Ukraine, even those leading irregular formations such as Wagner and Akhmat.

Prigozhin and Kadyrov appear to be able to make largely independent decisions about their forces, but this phenomenon becomes more pronounced the longer these forces have de facto control over certain sections of the front.

These developments call into question Russia's ability to coordinate a coherent defence campaign across the entire theatre. Russian military commanders appear to be increasingly delegating responsibility for different sections of the frontline in Ukraine to different Russian commanders, while the power of the theatre commander continues to diminish. Gerasimov's diminished ability to control his commanders is likely to further limit the Russian military's ability to conduct coordinated operations spanning multiple areas of responsibility."

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