Putin needs Wagner forces, and he will not forgive those who follow Prigozhin – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that Russian president Vladimir Putin, with his statements about the mutiny, is trying to keep the Wagner fighters to use them in the war, and he will not forgive those who, instead of joining the Russian Ministry of Defence, follow Prigozhin to Belarus.

Source: ISW report on 26 June

Quote from ISW: "Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on 26 June seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the Russian military and continue fighting against Ukraine and to cause individuals most loyal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to self-identify."

"Putin praised the work of Wagner Group commanders likely in an effort to retain them as the Wagner Group integrates into the MoD.

Details: Condemning the organisers of the armed rebellion as traitors and thanking the self-proclaimed president of Belarus for his help in the negotiations, Putin did not mention Prigozhin by name. But analysts believe that Putin's speech leaves little room for any rapprochement with the leader of the Wagner Private Military Company.

The Russian president once again called Ukraine the real enemy and offered the Wagner fighters three options: continue to "serve Russia" by signing a contract with the Ministry of Defence or other Russian special services, resign and go home, or go to Belarus.

Quote from ISW: "Putin could have arrested the Wagner commanders for treason but instead offered to forgive and integrate Wagner forces – which indicates his need for trained and effective manpower. Putin is also likely attempting to finalise the Russian MoD-initiated formalisation effort."

Details: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also assured his foreign colleagues on 26 June that Wagner PMC will continue operations in Mali and the Central African Republic.

Analysts also report that Wagner is continuing to recruit people in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Tyumen.

At the same time, ISW believes that some of the Wagner units may follow Prigozhin to Belarus, where camps are already being built for their accommodation.

Lukashenko may try to use Prigozhin's fighters to balance Russia's long-standing efforts to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, although, as ISW points out, it remains unclear how successful Lukashenko will be in attracting the Wagner fighters or in denying Russia the extradition of Prigozhin's fighters who may be stationed in Belarus.

Analysts write that Prigozhin's personal whereabouts remain unknown as of 26 June, although some unconfirmed reports indicate that he is staying at the Green City Hotel in western Minsk.

It is also indicated that Belarus will not offer the mercenaries real asylum if the Kremlin puts pressure on it. Therefore, asylum in Belarus could become a trap.

Quote from ISW: "The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified ‘promise’ about Wagner fighters who choose to do so. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable.

Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason."

Details: Moreover, Lukashenko previously handed over 33 Wagner fighters detained in Belarus to Moscow.

Analysts said that the future of the Wagner group is unclear, but it will probably not include Evgeny Prigozhin and may not continue to exist as a separate or unitary body.

It is also reported that the Kremlin will probably try to replace Wagner's leader to distance the PMC from Prigozhin's betrayal in case Putin decides to keep Wagner as a separate entity.

At the time of writing, the Kremlin had not made any statements about the fate of the Wagner PMC.

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